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A law recently approved by the Ukrainian parliament that sets new conditions for eastern regions to assume special status has triggered fears that an uncertain cease-fire in the conflict-torn area could collapse.
The law has drawn strong criticism from independence-seeking insurgents and astonishment from local experts, who think it may add to instability in the restive regions and overshadow the future prospects of the peace process in the areas.
Controversial Amendments
Kiev has agreed to officially recognize the special status of the areas controlled by the insurgents as part of a cease-fire agreement reached in Minsk on Feb. 12.
Analysts believe the measure, which establishes a special regime of self-rule in the rebel-held areas while keeping them within Ukraine, could have become the best compromise option to satisfy both authorities in Kiev and the rebel leadership, who earlier sought full independence.
"The special status is a real compromise with the self-claimed Donetsk and Lugansk republics. It is a compromise on the beneficial terms for Ukraine," said Vadim Karasev, director of the Institute of Global Strategies.
The Ukrainian parliament was due to approve the bill on the special status, which was pending since September last year, but instead of the expected version, lawmakers backed a different draft law which includes controversial amendments.
The changes have granted some concessions to rebels, but simultaneously set new conditions for their regions' autonomy.
On one hand, the new legislation has fulfilled a long-term rebel demand to outline the boundaries of certain districts, where a self-rule regime would be established.
On the other hand, the amendments state that special status will be granted to the regions only after local elections are held in accordance with the Ukrainian law.
The legislation stipulates that the vote will be held only after "illegal armed groups" are withdrawn from the Ukrainian territory, which could mean that the rebel leadership would be unable to take part in the elections.
It came as no surprise that the amendments to the special status law triggered strong criticism from the rebel leadership, who claimed that the changes "crushed the fragile peace and led the situation in Donbass to a deadlock".
"No compromise with Kiev is possible until the shameful laws are scrapped," the leaders of the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic" and "Lugansk People's Republic" Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky said in a joint statement.
Minsk deal under threat
Local analysts were not so sharp in their statements as insurgent leadership, but also voiced astonishment over the amendments, which did not fully meet the provisions of the Minsk agreement.
Andrei Zolotarev, an analyst at the Kiev-based analytical center Third Sector, said the changes might complicate the implementation of the peace deal.
"The changes in fact propose one of the conflicting sides completely abandon their positions before the start of the process to resolve the situation. It is clear that after these amendments the prospects to implement the Minsk agreement are vanishing," Zolotarev said.
He was echoed by Alexander Demyanchuk, another expert on political sciences who said the changes are inconsistent with the Minsk deal, which calls on the Ukrainian authorities to enter into dialogue with insurgents over the form of the elections in Donbass.
"The paragraph No.12 of the Minsk agreement says that local elections in the region should be discussed with representatives of the self-proclaimed Lugansk and Donetsk republics," Demyanchuk said.
Experts also have pointed out that another threat to the Minsk cease-fire deal is a separate decision of the parliament to label the rebel-held areas as "temporarily occupied territories", which implies that such areas should be "liberated".
Local analysts believe such formulation would not bring practical benefits to Kiev, but could infuriate the rebels and harm the shaky truce.
"Although this decision is logical from the objective point of view - these territories are not controlled by the government so they could be considered as occupied - the wording that is used in the law would harm the Minsk agreements," said Yury Paliychuk, an independent political analyst.
High risk situation
The special status law amendments have triggered fears that the situation in eastern Ukraine may further deteriorate. Indeed, it is difficult to imagine that the rebels would accept the conditions for their self-rule prescribed in the law.
"The new legislation is practically unviable due to the position of insurgents, whose leaders claim to be legitimately elected," said Yaroslav Kovalchuk, an analyst at the International Center for Political Studies.
Kovalchuk believed that the rebels may launch a new offensive against government forces in the nearest future if there are no concessions from the Ukrainian authorities concerning their regions' special status.
"I expect that some offensive actions may start in April," Kovalchuk said.
Mykhailo Pavliv, an international relations expert, also believes that the confrontation in eastern Ukraine is likely to continue in the short term.
"Now there is a complete misunderstanding and contradiction between the newly formed institutions in Donbass and the official Kiev, thus the chances for a political settlement in the current circumstances are very small," Pavliv said.
If there is no immediate decision from Kiev about a comprehensive constitutional reform providing greater autonomy to the rebel-held areas while keeping them a part of Ukraine, the conflict may spiral out of control, the expert added.
"In the best case, the confrontation may turn into a prolonged frozen conflict," Pavliv said. Enditem
