The sick man, redux

U.S. President Donald Trump walks to board Marine One in Washington D.C. January 9, 2020. /Xinhua

Editor's note: Josef Gregory Mahoney is a professor of politics at East China Normal University. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The U.S. president is infected. So is the first lady, a key aide and possibly others. Epidemiologists have begun contact tracing to see how far the virus has spread among senior leaders, with fears it could reach across both parties given the recent presidential debate and ongoing negotiations between Trump's cabinet and congressional leadership. Per global headlines, markets have shuddered, with worries over a delayed election and whether leaders will be incapacitated or worse.

And as Reuters reports, America's polarized voters have divided predictably into two camps: those who are concerned for the president's health – he's at higher risk given his age and weight; and those who would say "we told you so," criticizing his dismissiveness of science, including social distancing and masks.

Already some are speculating how the infection's course may impact voters. If Trump's COVID-19 case is only mild, then no doubt he'll use it to tout his strength and health as well as to validate his stance on the disease. If his case is more serious, then it might play on the sympathies of American voters. But either way, we should not expect to see him chastened by the experience. He's no Boris Johnson.

American failures, global consequences

Concerns that America's senior leadership is compromised are well-founded but should not be surprising. Two recently published studies underscore why.

First, a study from Chinese researchers indicates that COVID-19's basic reproduction number (R

0

) is higher than initially thought. A good estimate of R0

is vital for planning public health responses. It indicates the number of secondary infections likely caused a by a single carrier.

In the early days of the outbreak in Wuhan, the study indicates R

0

was 8.4. This means each infected person on average infected another eight people. After control measures took hold in China, the estimated R0

went down significantly.

Stunningly, despite more than eight months to respond, with an economy and society in tatters and even the president infected, the estimated U.S. R

0

is still around 8.2.

Secondly, a study from researchers at Cornell University concludes that Trump is the world's biggest driver of misinformation about COVID-19. His promotion of scientifically unproven and harmful treatments, include his unwavering support for hydroxychloroquine, but also his frequent off-the-cuff quackery like his suggestion that people who are infected should inject themselves with disinfectant – which has been linked now to a number of poisoning deaths.

Additionally, Trump's sidelining of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, his attacks on his key scientific adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci and others, his failure to set positive examples reinforcing mask wearing and social distancing (instead politicizing these proven control measures as signs of weakness and disloyalty), as well as his constant return to racist and scientifically disproven conspiracy theories about the virus' origin, have altogether driven what the World Health Organization has described as an "infodemic" that has made the pandemic worse in the U.S. and worldwide.

C-SPAN 2 live stream of U.S. President Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden speaking during their first debate in the 2020 presidential race, September 29, 2020. /Xinhua

A plague upon itself, but blame China

Pundits are already concerned Trump will use his illness to fuel more attacks on China.

During his "debate" with Joe Biden a few days ago, Trump repeated his racist description of COVID-19, saying this "China plague" has destroyed the U.S. economy.

Wouldn't it be more appropriate to note that the U.S. economy was already on shaky ground with inflated figures fueled by historically low interest rates, unsustainable tax cuts and tax inequality, dangerous deregulations, and unchecked government spending? Wouldn't it be more sensible to acknowledge that misgovernance before and during the outbreak is the primary culprit for America's woes?

Meanwhile, new figures indicate that with Trump's infection exacerbating election and economic uncertainties, the Fed propping up U.S. markets with an estimated $3 trillion, and the U.S. government running massive deficits, China's yuan is increasingly becoming a safe haven asset. And Chinese people are enjoying a national holiday, spending money without masks and social distancing. China's domestic consumption is rebounding and factory orders for overseas markets are rising.

Where's Trump's vaccine? Where's his security?

One month before Americans go to the polls, Trump's infection indicates first and foremost that his promised vaccine before the election hasn't materialized. This is also unsurprising because almost every credible public health official has said it wouldn't, but this didn't stop him from repeating those claims again this week.

In a week that also saw the FBI releasing a video titled "The Nevernight Connection" with respect to alleged national security concerns, Americans really ought to ask themselves: who's a bigger threat to their well-being, Beijing or Washington?

On the one hand, not only has gross U.S. negligence undermined Americans' health and strength, it has even revealed that the White House is itself vulnerable to its own incompetence. Allowing one's senior leadership to become infected, to spread the disease through its ranks, indicates a massive failure, one that at this point can only be blamed on the president and his team.

On the other hand, there are some quiet whispers among Chinese hawks that another four years of Trump would be the greatest gift America could give China. No one has done more to erode America's power and hegemony globally than Trump has.

There are those in China who welcome America's decline and those in America who hate China's rise, and both wish the same thing for Trump – a speedy recovery and reelection.

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