India's era of neutrality is over, China must respond

Editor’s note: Tom Fowdy graduated from Oxford University’s China Studies Program and majored in politics at Durham University and writes about international relations focusing on China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The article reflects the author’s opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

President Donald Trump and his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi attended a mass rally in Texas on September 22, part of the President’s re-election campaign, titled “Howdy, Modi!”. Described as the first ever mass rally dedicated to a foreign leader visiting the United States, Trump proceeded to introduce the Prime Minister as one of “America’s greatest, most devoted and most loyal friends” with Modi in turn lavishing praise upon the president as a “true friend” of India, praising him as “energetic” and “full of wit.”

The show should be interpreted by commentators as a crucial and decisive turning point in India’s foreign policy trajectory, the event is symbolic but it creates a definitive “public memory” which sets out a new paradigm. New Delhi’s traditional stance of non-alignment and neutrality which emerged after the country’s independence is fading. In its place is emerging an increasingly strategic and unofficial alliance with the United States, aimed at stifling China on a regional level. This means that relations ahead between the two may prove to be frosty.

Whilst facts will always be facts, we fundamentally remember and interpret history through the imagery and symbolism which defines it and tells a “story.” When Richard Nixon met Mao Zedong in 1974, in practice the event was shocking and surprising to Americans at the time, yet its momentum and the subsequent memory of that meeting would eventually stand as a milestone in a new precedent and era between the two countries. Another might involve when Deng Xiaoping was photographed wearing a cowboy hat. In politics, symbolism can ultimately drive substance.

And like it or not, the scene of Donald Trump and Narendra Modi together in a mass rally in Texas might well be setting a definitive moment in the history of India-U.S. ties, with significant buildup behind it. Traditionally, New-Delhi has been carefully neutral, proclaiming a foreign policy of official no-alignment, avoiding the cold war power blocs. In doing so, it maintained a balance between Washington and Beijing. Although it had several disagreements with the latter, it nevertheless opted for stability in its relationship with China and focused on economics.

Now however, things may be changing. One cannot say that it wasn’t coming. Firstly, Modi’s rule at home is becoming increasingly assertive, nationalist, and hard-line. By getting support from the U.S., he knows Washington will selectively ignore these issues in favor of its regional objectives. But tied to that, and more obviously as a second point, the U.S. has long been trying to court New Delhi under the mantra of the “Indo-Pacific.”

Since last year the two countries have signed an intelligence sharing agreement, engaged in broader military and naval cooperation, Modi has upped efforts to block the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a trade agreement which involves China, whilst now pushing a Indo-American trade deal and refused to endorse the Belt and Road Initiative, all whilst openly hailing America as a “loyal friend” and piling praise on Trump at a rally orchestrated for him.

In this sense, a U.S.-India axis is now emerging and it has had its “definitive moment.” The question is now, how does China respond to this new foreign policy reality? Whilst this is unlikely to descend into outright hostility or confrontation, Beijing must be prepared for the emergence of an increasingly strategically unfriendly neighbor. Firstly, China should seek to pursue the RCEP without India; it is obvious New Delhi’s disrupting of the nearly finalized agreement on protectionist grounds is a strategic nod to the United States.

Secondly, China should consolidate its diplomacy and investment in upholding good ties with India’s neighbors, including Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan. Thirdly and most importantly, Beijing should avoid being put into a nationalist trap of confrontation by New Delhi itself, a foreign policy strategy pursued and beneficial to Modi. Clashes and confrontations should be avoided, which will only empower the tilt towards Washington. The door should be ultimately kept open to India on a diplomatic level and Beijing must work hard to convince the country that the relationship can be of benefit.

As a whole, last night we witnessed the emergence of a new strategic reality with the United States and India coming closer than any point in history. This Modi-Trump rally may offer little in substance, but has deep political and diplomatic connotations through the sheer strength of its symbolism, of which China must respond to mindfully, but cautiously.

(CGTN)