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By APD writer Ding Yi
Senior officials of the U.S. and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) are busy preparing for the historic meeting between President Trump and top leader Kim Jong Un.
Showing the unusual signals of reconciliation and denuclearization, what is Kim expecting? And, making such a bold decision of accepting the invitation from a leader of an “evil” country, what is Trump planning? Are the two sides working collaboratively towards the illusive goal of denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula? Obviously, the answer is no.
For Trump, the reason behind the acceptance of the invitation is the straight talk with Kim costs little but with big returns.
The DPRK has possessed nuclear power currently, and even military strikes would probably not destroy all nuclear facilities and weapons. Compared with launching a military strike or being locked in a standoff, the negotiation with Kim just pays relatively low price, but is very likely to make a breakthrough.
If the U.S. forces the DPRK to make concessions on denuclearization, for example to freeze nuclear programs, suspend nuclear tests or put aside ICBM plans, it will be a great bonus for the US Republicans who are endeavoring to hold the majority in both the Senate and the House, and also for Trump who will be devoted to the campaign for his second presidential tenure. So, a dialogue with Kim invests little but benefits much, in view of this, it would be a cost-effective deal in the eyes of the business-minded Trump.
Also, the detente with the DPRK will exert a positive influence on Iran, another country that suffered great pressures from the US and its president’s harsh criticism. In dealing with the DPRK’s issue, Trump not only levied sanctions, but also acrimoniously threatened and abused Kim in person.
To Iran, Trump refused to lift the sanctions and even threatened to nullify the nuclear deal. But the meeting with Kim means sending a new signal for the politically moderate blocs in Iran: the U.S. would like to make an equal dialogue with the DPRK, then why not Iran? Therefore, Trump’s meeting with Kim will probably motivate the moderates and reformists in Iran to seek an opportunity to address the nuclear issue and reconcile with the western world.
For Kim, the benefits are more alluring.
First, Kim Jong Un’s equal dialogue with Trump, in the status of the top leader of a nuclear power, will enormously enhance both the international status of the country and Kim’s personal prestige. However, knowing that, it will be more difficult for the DPRK to renounce its nuclear weapons because Kim will be more convinced that possessing nuclear power should be the only way for Pyongyang to safeguard its national security and maintain its international status.
Second, to meet with Trump can be an approach of preserving a portion of nuclear weapons, as well as lifting sanctions and requesting moreaids. Pyongyang is suffering rigorous sanctions imposed by the international community, among which the crude oil embargoes have hugely handicapped its function. During the bargaining of denuclearization, it is very likely that the DPRK will agree to make concessions and try to maximize its own interests by destroying nuclear weapons and freezing nuclear facilities as baits and carrying out the plan step by step. And then Pyongyang will ask for big returns including supplying commodities, economic and technological aids in each stage.
Finally, Kim is making every effort to win more time for propelling the ICBM plans by meeting with Trump. The DPRK has conducted several ICBM tests, of which the Hwasong-15 is the most notable one as its range is thought to be as far as 12,000km, far enough to reach the American territory.
Hwasong-15 Intercontinental Missile
However, it is widely believed that DPRK still need some time to command the key technology of overcoming aerodynamic heat during re-entry for ICBMs of such a long range. That’s why the DPRK is willing to make a detente and seek an opportunity of negotiation, both for the need of winning time to tackle technological problems, and obtaining strategic resources like oil for its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Once it commands all of the techniques of ICBMs that are able to reachthe U.S. eventually, it wins a trump card in the bargaining.
Generally speaking, Trump and Kim are conspiring respectively, instead of working collaboratively for the meeting. The fundamental reason for the mistrust lies in the incompatible strategic interests between the Washington D.C. and Pyongyang on nuclear issue and regional stability. While the Trump-Kim meeting may help to mitigate the tension on the Peninsula for a short period, the denuclearization still needs long-term endeavors.
Ding Yi, Ph.D candidate, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University.
(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)
