APD | World economic slowdown may have little impact on CPEC

APD NEWS

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By APD writer Hussain

Pakistan’s National Security Committee meeting has taken important decisions to prevent the Coronavirus banning all kind of public gatherings and has recommended a nationwide health emergency.

All the borders would remain closed for 15 days while international flights would operate only from Karachi, Islamabad and Lahore airports.

Educational institutions across the country including all schools and universities, public and private, vocational institutions and madaris have been closed till April 5, while Prime Minister Imran Khan himself is monitoring the anti-Coronavirus derive in the country which reflects the seriousness of the government about the deadly pandemic.

The global outbreak of coronavirus, which has affected businesses in China and other countries, will certainly affect the economic activity in Pakistan too.

Risha Mohyeddin, Global Treasurer at HBL Bank, Pakistan’s largest bank, has expressed his views on the expected impact of Covid-19 on Pakistan and its economy: There will undoubtedly be a significant and tragic human cost if Covid-19 takes hold in the Pakistan population as much of the population lives in close proximity to each other.

The impact on the economy will largely be dictated by government action and any impact on Pakistan’s export sectors.

Given the domestic focus of the economy it should be less impacted by travel bans and slowing international trade than other more externally-facing developing economies.

Pakistan’s textile export sector relies on China for the bulk of its capital goods inputs, so there will be an impact if there is a protracted closedown of the Chinese economy.

One thing that needs to be watched closely is that due to the Covid-19 outbreak and the associated measures taken by the respective governments - the Chinese authorities are forced to slow down their rollout plans for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and the development of the Gwadar international deep-water port and its associated infrastructure.

Despite the uncertainties ahead, Pakistan’s economy has stabilized greatly in recent years. The security situation and lack of reliable power supplies that had discouraged foreign direct investment and local investment have much improved at present.

A large number of Chinese are among hundreds and thousands Pakistani nationals engaged in different CPEC projects and as the CPEC employees’ movement have been restricted and if the situation prevails it might hamper the flagship project for a certain period of time.

On the other hand, the World Health Organization has acknowledged that Pakistan had come up with the one of world’s best “national response programs’ against COVID-19 pandemic.

Dr Palitha Gunarathna Mahipala, WHO country representative in Pakistan, said authorities are doing their job and now it is the responsibility of the people to follow the instructions and take preventive and precautionary measures to avoid contracting the viral disease.

Anyhow Pakistan’s ambassador to China Naghmana Hashmi has said that the outbreak of novel Coronavirus, will have little impact on the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the flagship project of China's Belt and Road Initiative.

Talking to international media recently, Naghmana said the ever-increasing economic and trade integration between Pakistan and China has made the two economies increasingly inter-dependent, especially in the context of the CPEC.

The Pakistani envoy said that despite the virus outbreak, the trade flows and transportation linkages between Pakistan and China have not suspended. “The overall impact of the pandemic on the CPEC, if any, is therefore too marginal and meager to merit any serious afterthought,” she opined.

Pakistan and China have always stood the test of time and now when all the countries are limiting the movement of people, Pakistani President is in Beijing to express strong support and solidarity with China, the Iron Brother, and the Chinese people for their resilience in the wake of Covid-19 pandemic.

Hopefully China would soon overcome the Coronavirus pandemic and Pakistan would likely to benefit from the Chinese experience as Special Assistant on Health Dr Zafar Mirza proposed during the SAARC Video conference the other day.

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)