Is IsIs in crisis? Syrians who once supported Islamist extremists repulsed by their brutality

(THETIMESOFINIDA)Theveryfoundationsofthecaliphateappeartobecrumbling.Territoriesonceenjoyedbythe"IslamicState",andbrutallyenforcedpublicsupportare,perhapsforthefirsttime,underseriousthreat.

Amiddefectionsfromfighters,oftenunpaidbecauseofairstrikesonoilsupplylinesandascleroticeconomy,thecaliphateappearsweakerthanever.AnditsadherencetoabrutalviewofIslam,enforcedbyunwelcomeforeignfighters,iscreatingunrestamongthepeopleitisstrugglingtokeepwithinitsborders.

Whileacompletecollapseisnotimminent-despiterecentdefeatsandairstrikes,IsisremainsapotentmilitaryforceinIraqandSyria-thewitheringsupportfortheIslamistgroupcouldpresentanopportunityforitsenemies-rebelgroupsincludingthealQaida-alignedJabhatal-NusraandthearmyofPresidentBasharal-Assad.

AccordingtosurveysofthosestilllivingunderIsisruleinSyria,andthosewhorecentlyfledtoTurkey,thebrutalityoflifeunderIsis,oncetolerated,isnownot.ThoselivinginRaqqa,thede-factocapitalbombeddayandnightbycoalitionraids,claimtheyhavebeenbannedfromleavingthecity.Isis,theysay,wantsmorecivilianstodieforthepurposesofpropaganda.Thereis,however,anotherreasonforforcingpeopletoremain:analystssuggestthat,amidthebombingofsmugglingroutes,thetaxescollectedfromcitizenscouldprovidevitalincome.

AteacherfromMareasaidshehadaskedherclass,whopassseveredheadsonroadsidespikesandhangedbodiesonlampposts,whattheywantedtobewhentheygrewup."Amartyr,"wastheresponse."Daesh[Isis]areturningschoolsintotrainingcentres,"shesaid.JohnnyHeald,apollsterwhohasformorethantwoyearsbeentrackingpublicopinionthroughfocusgroupsingovernment-,rebel-andIsis-controlleddistrictsofSyria,said:"TherearesignsthatgreaterfamiliaritywiththerealityoflifeunderDaesh[Isis]isbeginningtostrengthenopposition."

ThemostrecentpollingonpublicattitudesinSyria,withsamplestakenlastsummer,paintedacontradictorypicture.Only7percentofpeopleaskedin14provincessaidtherewassupportforIsis;16percentforNusra;21percentforIranand26percentfortheSyriangovernment.InRaqqa,54percentofpeopleaskedsaidtheyfavouredapoliticalsolution,comparedto34percentforamilitarysolutionand12percentwhodidnotknow.

Thediplomaticsolution,whichstillfarfromrealistic,tookanunexpectedturnwhenJohnKerry,theUSSecretaryofState,appearedtosuggestitwouldbepossiblefortheSyriangovernmentandrebelstocooperateagainstIsiswithoutMrAssadhavingleftpower.

WhileMrKerryadmittedsuchanoutcomewouldbe"exceedinglydifficult"toachieve,givenrebelshavebeenfightingMrAssadformorethanfouryears,hesaid:"Itisnotclearthathewouldhavetogoiftherewasclaritywithrespecttowhathisfuturemightormightnotbe."