Donald Trump got tons of good news in Tuesday's election results

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(VOX)TheelectionresultsonTuesdaywereadisasterforRepublicanelitesstillclingingtohopethattheycanstopDonaldTrump.

Thoughthevotesarestillbeingtalliedandthedelegateshaven'tallbeenallotted,Tuesday'sprimariesgaveTrumptonsoffantasticnewsatjustthemomenthiscampaignmostneededit—beforeapairofcrucialwinner-take-allprimariesinFloridaandOhionextweek.

ThebillionairewontwoeasyvictoriesinMichiganandMississippi,quietingrecentchatteramongpunditsthathismomentumhadcrested.Thatalsomeanshebeattwoofhisremainingrivals,TedCruzandJohnKasich,intheirhomeregions(theSouthandtheMidwest,respectively)—thoughCruzdidgetsomegoodnewsbywinningIdaho.

Andasthecherryontop,MarcoRubio'scandidacysuddenlyseemstobeinfreefall—RubiocameinfourthplacewithjustsingledigitsupportinbothMichiganandMississippi,andshutoutofdelegatesentirelyinbothofthem.anditlookedlikehecouldmissthedelegatethresholdinIowatoo.

CombinedwithRubio'sdisappointingperformancesonSaturday,thisseemstoindicatethatvotersnationwidearewritinghimoff.AndthiscollapsecomesattheperfecttimeforTrump,becauseoneweekfromtoday,hewillfaceoffwithRubiointhesenator'shugelyimportantwinner-take-allhomestateofFlorida.

TrumpbeatKasichandRubiorightbeforehebattlesbothintheirhomestates

WhileTuesday'sresultswilllikelyhelpTrumpexpandhisdelegatelead,itwon'tbebyallthatmuch,sincethesestatesallottheirdelegatesproportionally,andTedCruziscurrentlyabout12pointsbehindhiminbothMichiganandMississippi.

Buttheseresultscouldmatterbecausethesecontestswerethelastsignificantonesbeforeacrucialdayofprimaryvoting—nextweek'sMarch15contests,whichsomehavedeemed"SuperTuesdayII."Afterthis,thoughnearlythreemonthsoftheGOPcontestwillremain,about59percentofdelegateswillalreadyhavebeenallotted—sothebiggertheleadTrumpamasses,thetougheritwillbeforhisrivalstocatchup.

OntheIdesofMarch,TrumpisbattlingwithRubiotowinFloridaandKasichtowinOhio.Ifhewinsboth—evenwithatinyplurality—heracksupeverysingleoneoftheir165delegates.Toputthatintocontext,that'snearlyhalfTedCruz'stotalandmoredelegatesthanMarcoRubiohasgottenintheentireracesofar.

Beatingapresidentialcandidateinhishomestateisatallorder.ButTrumphasledalltherecentpollsineachstate,andhisvictoriesTuesdaywillpreventKasichandRubiofromgettingmuchpositivebuzzinthiscrucialfinalweek.

AndifTrumpdoesmanagetobeatbothKasichandRubiointheirhomestates,he'dlikelydrivebothoutoftherace—settingupashowdownwithjustTedCruzintheremainingstates.That'sfantasticforTrump,sincealargeshareofthoseremainingdelegatescomefromtheNortheast,whereCruzhasdonepoorlysofar.

Onelooseend:DoesTrumpunderperforminclosedcontests?

TherehavebeenagreatmanytheoriesabouthowTrumpwilleventuallylosethathavebeenutterlydebunked.

But,tomymind,there'sstillonebigquestionmarkabouthisfutureperformance—he'sdonemuchworsein"closed"primariesandcaucusessofar,whereneitherDemocratsorindependentsarepermittedtovote,asToddZywickipointedoutattheVolokhConspiracy.

Beforetoday,19stateshadvoted—butTedCruzhadactuallywonfiveoftheeightthathadheldclosedcontests(Iowa,Alaska,Oklahoma,Kansas,andMaine).Furthermore,evenintwothatTrumpwon—KentuckyandLouisiana—heperformedfarworsethanhehadinotherstatesintheregionwithopencontests.

AndofthecontestsTuesday,theonesTrumprompedin—MississippiandMichigan—wereopen,andallowedDemocratsandindependentstovote.ButIdaho,wherehelosttoTedCruz,wasclosed.

Thiscouldmatterbecausethevastmajorityofremainingcontestsareclosed—includingFloridanextweek.IftheTrumpcoalitionreliesdisproportionatelyonregisteredDemocratsorindependents,hecouldrunintoproblemsahead.

Still,considerthisjustaninterestingtheoryforthetimebeing.Trump'snightwentgreatforhimoverall,andhecouldn'thaveaskedforamuchbetterfinishaweekbeforethosecrucialOhioandFloridacontests.