Phil Quinn: Don't push Trump panic button yet

Queuesareformingatfaintingcouches,andnostrilsareflaringwithunconstrainedindignationatDonaldTrump'sdailyoutrages-andthere'snodenyingthemanisaloathsomecretin.Butwhenitcomestoextrapolatingthisself-evidentinsightintointoabroadercritiqueoftheallegedcravennessoftheAmericanpoliticalmind,Iofferawordortwoofcaution.

PertheRealClearPoliticsaverageofpolls,roughlythirtypercentofRepublicanssaythey'llvoteforTrump.AccordingtoPew,self-identifiedRepublicanscomprisejust23percentofeligiblevoters.ThatmeansTrumpisthepreferredcandidateofjustundersevenpercentoftheUSelectorate-aboutathirdthesupportachievedbytheNationalFrontinFranceafewdaysago,andjustatouchunderwhatthefascistGoldenDawnpartyachievedinthemostrecentGreekelections.

TheUShasatwopartysystemwithprimariesthatrewardrecklesswing-nuttery(becauseincentivesaregearedtowardsthebase)andwheregeneralelectionstendtoactasacorrective(demandingthatcandidatescompeteforindependentsandnon-partisans).

Whenfringecandidatesprevailintheprimaries-BarryGoldwaterin1964comestomind-theygetwhipped.

Amongthewiderelectorate,Trump'sextremeanti-Muslimandanti-immigrationplatformisnotnoticeablygainingground.Infact,thenumberofAmericanswhosupportObama'simmigrationproposal-designedtogivelegalstatustomillionsofimmigrants-hasactuallyrisensinceSeptember,despiteterrorattacksandTrump'santics.49percentsupportObama'sapproachcomparedto13percentwhoagreewithTrumpthatimmigrantsshouldbedeportedinstead.Inaddition,70percentrejectTrump'sclaimsthatdeportingimmigrantswillhelpAmericanworkersor"makeAmericagreatagain"byboostingtheeconomy.

Intruth,the"paranoidstyleinAmericanpolitics"(thetitleofanessayinHarpersfrom1964that'salwaysworthareadorreread)hasbeenaroundforcenturies,andTrump'snativist,anti-Muslimrhetoricisjustthelatestiteration.However,theUSisnotalone:asizeableand,sadly,growingminorityofEuropeanvotersaregravitatingtowardsfar-rightparties,rejectingwhattheyperceiveas"politicalcorrect"panderingfromthegoverningelitesofthecentre-leftandcentre-right.ButneitherintheUSnorEuropedotheseforcesrepresentthedominantpublicsentiment.GoldenDawnwillnotwinelectionsinGreece;UKIPwillcontinuetosubsistonthefringesofBritishpolitics,andTrumpwon'tgetwithinabull'sroaroftheWhiteHouse.

Sowhensmart,well-informedpeoplelikeDavidShearerwarnthatAmerica'slegacyofreligioustoleranceisatriskbecauseofDonaldTrump,Isenseanoverreaction.There'salwaysasegmentofthevotingpopulationreadytoembraceshamelesspopulists,vileracistsandrabble-rouserslikeGeorgeWallace,PatBuchanan,andH.RossPerot.Buttheyneverwinintheend.Infact,theytendtolosespectacularly.

ThereisnothingneworparticularlyoriginalaboutDonaldTrump,exceptthathisemergenceasafirst-tierpresidentialcontenderoccurredafterthecomingoftheinternet,history'smostpowerfulumbragedisseminator.Hedoesnotheraldsomefrighteningnewdawnofneo-fascismsettodominateUSpolitics.He'sjustthesameoldclown,admittedlyinascarierwig.