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Thailand's massive anti-government protests might possibly end up in a fresh military coup shortly, according to noted scholar Pavin Chachavalpongpun at Kyoto University's Center for Southeast Asian Studies.
The political predicaments currently stemming from the prolonged street protests, spearheaded by former Deputy Premier Suthep Thaugsuban and the so-called Network of Students and People for Reform of Thailand, might possibly intensify in the Thai capital to the extent that the elected government under Premier Yingluck Shinawatra might be unable to maintain the rule of law or keep the situation under control.
"The street protesters might do anything only to provoke a military intervention into the affairs of the government, which might eventually lead to a coup. The military might take for granted that the coup is justified by failures of the government to govern at any given moment.
"The military might overthrow the government since they already did so to a previous government under Thaksin (Shinawatra)," he said, referring to the former Thai leader, brother of the current premier, who was ousted in 2006's coup.
The anti-government protesters would not be satisfied even if the premier stepped down or dissolved the House of Representatives to call a snap election. They resolved to press for an end to " Thaksin's rule" allegedly carried out by Yingluck, who is currently being grilled in censure debate at parliament.
Pavin commented that the protesters would be pleased and immediately call off their street rallies if the military staged a coup, which meant the end to the Thaksin rule.
Though military leaders have repeatedly dismissed speculation that they might overthrow the Yingluck government in a coup, such possibilities simply cannot be ruled out, he said.
Nevertheless, no coup might occur to depose the elected government unless the military decided that the situation is running out of hands of the government, he said.
Army chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha has set up an army operations center inside the compound of the First Army Regiment to monitor movement of the protesters who have occupied the premises of the Foreign Ministry, the Finance Ministry, the Budget Bureau and the Public Relations Department.
"The military might wait for a very opportune time to make a move to intervene in the affairs of the government which might possibly be followed by a coup if they assumed that the situation is going out of control of the government. When it comes to staging a coup, the military cannot afford to fail it,"he said.
He added that coups were no big surprise in Thai politics, given the fact that the military already did 18 coups over the past 80 years and might do it again under pretexts of national security.
Pavin Chachavalpongpun
Scholarat Kyoto University's Center for Southeast Asian Studies
