Former Thai leader Yingluck Shinawatra likely to survive retroactive impeachment complaint

Former Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is likely to survive a retroactive impeachment complaint filed against her in the National Legislative Assembly ( NLA) primarily because of the reconciliation efforts initiated by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha and the ruling military junta, analysts here said.

The impeachment complaint, which is aimed at banning Yingluck from engaging in politics for five years, will be debated in the non-elected NLA next Wednesday. It looms as a hot issue in the mainstream Thai media, particularly in the wake of efforts by the ruling Thai military to promote reconciliation among the various sectors of Thai society.

The retroactive punitive action against the ousted prime minister is largely based on allegations of negligence on her part in the implementation of the populist rice subsidy program initiated by her Pheu Thai (for Thais) Party-led government over the last few years.

The complaint against Yingluck had been earlier lodged by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) which had purportedly found connivance among corrupt government officials and opportunistic rice traders and farmers that resulted in a loss of more 10 billion U.S. dollars in taxpayers' money.

However, former NACC commissioner Somlak Jadkrabuanpol has opined that the non-elected legislators are not legally empowered by the temporary constitution, written by the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), to launch an impeachment bid against any government official in the first place and that the military-led, non-elected legislative body is merely performing on a temporary basis, pending the outcome of a parliamentary election.

"The impeachment bid will merely spoil the reconciliatory effort being pushed by varied sectors of society. It will not only set a precedent for unnecessary hassles among political opponents and make all reconciliatory efforts more difficult to succeed," Somlak said.

A majority of the non-elected members of the NLA, many of whom are former powerful military officers, will likely oppose the planned impeachment against Yingluck although it is being vigorously pushed by some of their civilian colleagues, according to analysts identified with the NCPO, which is the official name of the ruling military junta.

According to former senator Ruangkrai Leekitwattana, who jumped to the Pheu Thai bandwagon during the previous election which was eventually rendered null and void by the courts, the impeachment proceedings against Yingluck could backfire and subject its proponents to some future legal action and could even land them in jail.

The NLA, all members of which were handpicked by Thai Premier Gen. Prayuth, will decide on whether the former leader face an impeachment proceeding and be meted out appropriate penalties, including a ban on holding government positions for five years. Gen. Prayuth led the May 22 military coup that ousted Yingluck.

Yingluck, sister of former Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra, categorically denied all charges related to the rice program under which farmers had been given an average of 500 U.S. dollars for each ton of rice purchased by the government. During her tenure, Yingluck had even launched her own investigation into the alleged corruption in the rice subsidy program.

Yingluck is widely expected to seek re-election under the Pheu Thai Party in the next general election as promised by the military government.

According to former Pheu Thai MP Vorachi Hema, Yingluck is still popular among her constituents, especially in the rural areas, and could very well succeed in her bid to return to power.

Admiral Dithavat Wongsuwan, an NLA member and brother of Deputy Premier/Defense Minister Gen. Pravit Wongsuwan, has earlier suggested that the parliament pursue the investigation initiated by the NACC against Yingluck and other officials in a "scrupulous and impartial" manner.

"All legislators are free to decide on any issues while the NCPO will by no means intervene," said Gen. Noppadol Intapanya, another NLA member, known as a close friend of the defense minister.

Given the strong advice from Prime Minister Gen. Prayuth, who also heads the NCPO, that all opposing sides of society should bury the hatchet and come to terms with each other as part of a national reconciliation effort, legislators from the military would likely toe the line and refrain from taking any punitive action against the former prime minister.

But some civilian lawmakers, especially those who used to be non-elected senators, could grill the former woman premier during the scheduled debate.

"The impeachment bid is primarily aimed at preventing Yingluck to seek reelection in the upcoming election and lead the country again," said one analyst.

Gen. Prayuth earlier promised to hold nationwide election in the latter part of next year but only after the crafting of a " permanent" constitution and the implementation of national reforms.

"It's time that all opposing sides should work for reconciliation while formal (corruption) charges are being investigated under the rule of law," the premier said.