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By APD Commentator Shi Jiangyue
(Translated by Deng Xianlai)
It came as no surprise that the new UN sanctions against the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) over its missile and nuclear weapons programs were once again met with harsh condemnation from Pyongyang.
Analysts, however, said the DPRK’s missile tests, if to continue, would make August the most dangerous month for the Korean Peninsula.
Whether the United States will resort to force to bring the nuclear aspirant in line depends on when Washington considers itself having no other choices.
Judging from the recent development, though, it still seems unlikely that the United States will launch military actions against the DPRK.
The DPRK on Aug. 7 condemned the new U.S.-led sanctions resolution, saying the country “will never place its self-defensive nuclear deterrence on the negotiation table” under pressure from the United States.
In a government statement carried by the official KCNA news agency, the DPRK said that the new UN sanctions, adopted unanimously by the 15-member UN Security Council on Aug. 5, were “a wanton infringement upon the sovereignty of the country,” and that Pyongyang “will never ... flinch an inch from the road chosen by itself, the road of bolstering up the state nuclear force.”
While fully geared to wield the stick of sanctions on the DPRK, the United States is also speeding up tests of its own LGM-30 Minuteman III, a land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Just recently, Washington test-fired the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system as well.
In the meantime, Washington and Seoul are also planning a joint military exercise in August. Dubbed “Ulchi-Freedom Guardian,” the drill will involve two U.S. carrier strike groups in waters off the Korean Peninsula.
PYONGYANG HAS NOT SUSPENDED MISSILE DEVELOPMENT
According to a KCNA report, a spokesman for the Strategic Force of the Korean People’s Army (KPL) issued a statement on Aug. 8 saying:
“Recently, the U.S. test-fired ICBM Minuteman-3 at its Vandenberg Air Force Base in California State targeting the DPRK, the fourth one this year, openly staged an actual nuclear strike drill targeting the strategic objects of the DPRK by mobilizing its nuclear strategic bombers formation stationed at its Anderson Air Force Base on Guam in the Pacific.
It is driving the regional situation to an extreme pitch by bringing various kinds of nuclear strategic hardware ... Such military maneuvers of the U.S. may provoke a dangerous conflict under the present extremely acute situation prevailing on the Korean peninsula.”
What keeps the DPRK closely monitoring Guam, a U.S.-held Pacific island which Pyongyang often describes as the forefront of U.S. invasion, is that the U.S. Air Force’s nuclear strategic bombers usually take off from Guam, fly over the airspace of South Korea, and then launch live-ammunition war games and/or flex muscles -- with the DPRK’s nuclear facilities being their opposing targets.
In addition, U.S. media said that prior to the adoption of the latest UN sanctions, Pyongyang had already equipped one of its patrol ships on the east coast with two anti-ship missiles.
U.S. officials said this action might imply that the DPRK would conduct more missile tests in the near future, or that it was to prepare for a possible increase of U.S. warships around the Korean Peninsula.
TWO U.S. CARRIER STRIKE GROUPS SAIL TO KOREAN PENINSULA AGAIN
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said in the Philippines on Aug. 7 that the DPRK stopping its missile launches “is the best signal” to show the regime is prepared to talk.
However, a U.S. official who requested anonymity said Pyongyang has so far given no proof whatsoever to suspend its missile tests, which is not an auspicious sign for the de-escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
On Aug. 5, the 15 members of the UN Security Council unanimously agreed on imposing the seventh round of sanctions against the DPRK and passed a new resolution drafted by the United States.
The fresh resolution forbids Pyongyang from exporting coal, iron, iron ore, lead, lead ore and seafood -- major sources of income for the country.
It also bans other countries from employing new workers from the DPRK. Meanwhile, it decides that all states shall prohibit opening new joint ventures or expanding additional investments to existing joint ventures with the country.
Can the new set of sanctions, which is estimated to cut the roughly 3-billion-U.S. dollar worth of goods that Pyongyang exports annually by a third, force Pyongyang to stop advancing its ICBM capabilities?
Very difficult probably, although the U.S. ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, had said “it was the most stringent set of sanctions on any country in a generation.”
Thus, the Korean Peninsula could face a steep rise in the possibility of a military conflict.
Haley wrote in a signed opinion piece published on Aug. 8 on Fox News’ website that her country will continue to keep all options on the table, implying that the use of force is included if Pyongyang continues with its “illegal and dangerous” nuclear program.
“We have not solved the problem -- not even close ... We will continue to put maximum pressure on North Korea at the United Nations and elsewhere to change its ways,” the envoy said, using the unofficial name of the DPRK.
WILL THE U.S. LAUNCH A STRIKE AGAINST THE DPRK?
Whether Pyongyang will fire another ICBM in the near future is at the center of focus right now, since it will have a direct impact on Washington’s next step.
“North Korea is likely to continue pursuing ballistic missile tests at its current pace of about every three to four weeks despite the sanctions,” John Park, director of the Korea Working Group at Harvard Kennedy School, was quoted in an Aug. 8 report by Bloomberg as saying. He called the sanctions “too little, too late” to cut off financing for the nuclear program.
Another factor which could potentially add to the possibility of U.S. President Donald Trump ordering military actions against the DPRK is that the president might be eager to shrug off the unabated domestic political pressure since his inauguration by diverting public attention to the chaos-engulfed administration’s foreign policies.
H.R. McMaster, Trump’s national security adviser, reiterated on Aug. 6 the administration's position that all options, including a targeted military strike, are on the table. Still, he acknowledged this "would be a very costly war, in terms of the suffering of mainly the South Korean people."
Will the United States launch a military strike on the DPRK? That depends on when Washington considers itself having no other choices.
By developing ICBMs, Pyongyang has apparently crossed Washington’s strategic bottom line. Once the United States realizes that sanctions are not enough to deter the DPRK’s nuclear and missile programs and it is unwilling to make “deals” with the country, then the likelihood of a targeted strike will increase.
Judging from the recent development, though, it still seems unlikely that the United States will launch military actions against the DPRK.
On the one hand, in light of the passage of the new U.S.-led sanctions, it remains to be seen to which degree those sanctions will play an effective role.
On the other hand, Trump has been well caught up in domestic affairs, with the vacancy of senior cabinet seats having a vastly negative impact on the administration’s operation.
Plus the fact that establishment politicians from both sides of the aisle have shown no signs of relaxation in their boycott against Trump, the president will only bring himself added pressure if he hastily sends American troops to the Korean Peninsula.
Nevertheless, there are signals worth noticing. Firstly, the Department of State on Aug. 2 issued a “North Korea Travel Alert.”
Citing “the serious and mounting risk of arrest and long-term detention of U.S. citizens under North Korea’s system of law enforcement,” the department, starting from Sept. 1, restricts Americans from entering the DPRK without permission.
“Persons currently in North Korea on a U.S. passport should depart North Korea before the travel restriction enters effect,” the statement added.
Secondly, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence recently reiterated that his country would not engage in direct dialogue with Pyongyang, a stance equivalent to shutting the door for consultation.
Thirdly, the United States earlier this month tested LGM-30 Minuteman III ICBM again, which brought the number of such launches so far this year to four.
In addition, the frequency with which Washington has tested its THAAD and Ground-based Midcourse Defense (an anti-ballistic missile system for intercepting incoming warheads during the midcourse phase of their flight) systems so far this year is also rarely seen in recent memories.
Undoubtedly, the Americans want to do something.
Shi Jiangyue writes extensively for media outlets on military-related topics. He has published hundreds of military- and defense-related articles in Chinese magazines and newspapers including Aerospace Knowledge, World Outlook, Modern Ships, Tank & Armored Vehicle, and Global Times.
(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)
