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By APD writer Chen Jiabao
Ex-Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's no-show for the much-anticipated verdict over her rice-pledging case on Aug 25 has stunned the world.
The historic ruling, of which the plot dramatically changed by the country's first woman prime minister's flight though, could hardly have a better ending.
The Supreme Court of Thailand has the very judgement day issued an arrest warrant for Yingluck after she failed to turn up for the verdict reading in the negligence case against her over her government’s rice-pledging scheme.
The court postponed the verdict reading to September 27 and ordered the seizure of Yingluck’s 882 thousand U.S dollars bail.
Though not confirmed by the Thai government yet, Yingluck's escape routes hit headlines of Thai media. The government's clarification of not helping Yingluck flee could only underscore the speculations that the power gave her green light to go.
Yingluck's escape routes
A source who is well placed in the security hierarchy, gave a detailed description of her escape, saying she took a private jet from Thailand to Singapore and on to Dubail. Dubai is the base of Shinawatra family patriarch Thaksin Shinawatra, Yingluck’s elder brother who has been living in self-exile since 2008.
“Thaksin has long prepared an escape plan for his sister. He would not allow his sister to spend even a single day in prison,” said the source. “But Dubai is not Yingluck’s final destination,” the source said, adding she may be aiming “to claim asylum in Britain”.
She's fled
Just within 24 hours after Yingluck's absence, Pinthongta, Thaksin's daughter posted on her Instagram:"I would like to sincerely thank all those who are well-intentioned and support us all the time."
Instagram of Thaksin's daughter
The message soon got nearly 4,000 likes, with followers replying "we will standby you forever", "we love the Shinawatras, may you be safe throughout the journey".
Given this short post, many Thai netizens have read between the lines, especially after Defense Minister Prawit conceded that the fugitive ex-prime minister has fled the country.
Prawit has ordered to hunt Yingluck right after her flight. He told the media on the same day that
Yingluck may have gone to Koh Chang Island in the eastern Thailand on Aug 23 and flew in a helicopter to Cambodia's Phnom Penh, from where she reportedly took a private jet to Singapore.
He also said she was accompanied by a senior state official who helped facilitate her departure without having to pass proper immigration process.
Police who are still waiting for the warrant to search Yingluck's houses, said they had no record of Yingluck leaving the country and were following developments closely.
Wissanu Krea-ngam, the deputy prime minister who serves as the government's legal advisor, said he had no ideas of Yingluck's whereabouts, emphasizing that police could arrest her on the spot if she is found.
Prayut, the prime minister who claimed he didn't know where Yingluck is, said he thought she was brave enough to show up after she failed to appear for the ruling in her trial.
Asked if he had expected Yingluck to flee, Prayut, known as a hard-temper man, said in a mild tone, "I never thought so, because she always said that she would defend herself, and people at her party said she would be there."
Prayut and Yingluck
Prayut made a speech in a forum held on the day before Yingluck's ruling, during which he said:" everyone is well aware that over the past three years Thai society faced various problems. We can't blame anyone because our country is a democratic one and there are elections. "
"Thai people must change to foster love and unity. This government is trying to solve past, present and future problems." said the prime minister.
Observers see Prayut's words as signals of reconciliation with rival Thai factions. On the same day when he made these comments, dozens of big signs with the message “no disunity, no fracture” appeared in the Thai capital.
Police said they had no idea who put up the signs or why, and there was no confirmation the call for unity was issued in anticipation of Yingluck's trial. They said the message on the signs is positive and would not cause public disorder.
Win-win option
Analysts say Yingluck, who was closely monitored by Thai security services, most likely cut a deal to exit the country.
The decision to flee helps her avoid being jailed under a Thai junta that pressed for her trial and diminishes the possibility of pro-Shinawatra protests.
Had she been jailed, Yingluck’s plight could have stirred anger and unrest among her large support base.
The current government is desperate to avoid instability as it digs in for a long stay in Thai politics.
Political scientist Thawee Surarittikul said there was suspicion that the security authorities and people in power were instrumental in helping Yingluck leave the country, despite a court ban on her travelling overseas.
However, he viewed her escape as a “win-win option” for both the junta and Yingluck.
Yingluck has been accused of dereliction of duty over her alleged failure to halt devastation from her rice-pledging scheme. Under the multi-billion-dollar subsidy scheme, Yingluck's government bought rice from farmers at inflated prices, leading to unsold stockpiles, distorted world prices and losses of $8 billion.
She was toppled by the military in 2014. The government has prohibited her to leave the country since 2015. She could face 10 years in jail if found guilty in the rice program.
During the two-year long trial, she was ordered to show up on court for every hearing. She has denied all wrongdoing in her handling of the rice scheme, claiming she was a victim of political game.
She has complained on her Facebook many times that she was closely followed by plainclothes police and authorities. Prime Minister Prayut apologized for that, saying there must be people assigned to take care of her.
On the eve of her trial, Yingluck urged her fans not to come to the court but follow the trial at home to avoid being hurt by ill-intentioned people, which is believed to a hint of her no-show.
Observers view her no-show a happy ending for all sides, as it would not change the current political climate.
Her supporters will still love her and understand her, while her opponents sees her as the sister who follows her brother’s footstep.The Shinawatra clan definitely lost politically and probably has no chance to stage a comeback, which is what the government most willing to see, according to analysts.
Some notice that Prayut is going to attend the BRICS Summit in China just a week after Yingluck's trial. "Deal-making behind the scene could have been done to ensure stability of the country when the prime minister is abroad."said observers.
Chen Jiabao, researcher of APD Institute, is the Thailand correspondent for APD news. Major in Thai, she's also a writer on Thailand issues with Xinhua News Agency.
(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)
