Australian PM safe for now but his days as leader could be numbered

Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott may have survived the party vote to keep him as leader on Monday but the underwhelming show of support has dealt him a serious blow.

The spill motion on the Liberal Party leadership, which was voted down 61 votes to 39, has bought Abbott more time.

But the prospect of him taking the party, and its Liberal- National coalition, to the next federal election looks ever more unlikely.

"Abbott is far from safe," said political commentator Dr. Norman Abjorenson of Australian National University (ANU) following the vote on Monday.

"He is a damaged leader with a sizable proportion of his own party wanting him out. The result has ensured that the prime minister will continue to be the focus rather than any message it tries to send. It remains to be seen whether he can survive."

With no Liberals announcing their intention to challenge Abbott, two-fifths of his colleagues effectively declared on Monday they had no confidence in their leader.

Had cabinet ministers and party whips ignored convention and voted freely, the result would have been even more devastating.

It is now clear the sometimes-abrasive leadership style Abbott has employed is as popular among his colleagues as it is among an increasing number of voters.

A Newspoll published in The Australian newspaper on Monday said Abbott had the worst approval ratings for a prime minister in 20 years, sitting at 24 percent, and that if an election were held immediately, the comfortable margin that took the coalition to power over the Labor government would be reversed.

As opposition leader, Abbott was ruthless at dissecting and destroying the Labor government's policies, including the carbon tax and mining tax.

But he has found in the past year that once those policies have been repealed, leading from the front and selling an unpopular budget has been far more burdensome.

Dr. Andrew Hughes, an expert on political marketing from ANU, said "Brand Abbott" needed a complete makeover to survive.

"It is unlikely a cynical market and party room will buy anything less than action to back up the words of a likely one- term prime minister," Hughes said. "The more Abbott mentions the Labor brand, the more they benefit. It's time to govern, Tony."

"Perception is reality in politics and with a far-from- comprehensive victory in the party room, Abbott's brand is probably in the final stages of its political life cycle. But the alternative is far from guaranteed of winning the next election."

Many members of parliament have grown frustrated with Abbott's habit of not consulting his party, or even his senior ministers, ahead of policy announcements.

Following his promise of a paid parental leave scheme for all workers on a salary of up to 112,500 U.S. dollars a year, he told his unhappy colleagues: "Sometimes it's better to ask forgiveness than permission."

Western Australian Liberal Luke Simpkins, who on Friday announced he would move a spill motion at the next party room meeting, said the "fatal tipping point" came a fortnight ago when Abbott awarded an Australian knighthood to Queen Elizabeth's husband, Prince Philip.

The knighthood debacle was ridiculed by voters and ensured the Liberal Party would be unable to shake off its horror finish to 2014.

Even on Sunday, an abrupt policy change about submarine construction which was designed to appease South Australian voters was communicated to his education minister, leading South Australian MP Christopher Pyne, not through the prime minister's office but by a journalist.

"Getting 39 votes is a powerful statement," said Simpkins. " This has been a good wake up call; the prime minister has taken on our concerns and he should be given that opportunity to move forward."

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten was quick to point out the current internal dysfunction in the Liberal Party was just what Abbott has set out to avoid.

"Tony Abbott promised he would run a stable and united government," Shorten said. "This is his biggest broken promise."

The question now is how long Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who was expected to challenge Abbott if the spill motion was passed, will wait to make his next move.

The prime minister promised the party room he would change his style. He reportedly asked his party colleagues for six months to show he is a changed man.

But many commentators feel he is unlikely to get that much time. Already SkyNews has predicted there could be another spill, even as early as later this week.

The ABC's Barrie Cassidy, a former Labor Party staffer turned political pundit, said: "With 40 percent of the party against you . .. you'd almost have to have a bit of cheek to carry on."

But carry on he will and, on Monday afternoon, Abbott vowed to consult his ministers, his backbenchers and the Australian electorate more thoroughly and more often.

Whether that radical change in attitude and approach will save his leadership should be known over the coming weeks.