APD | Has US fallen into an irreversible recession?

By APD writer Alice

According to US media, Democratic candidate Joe Biden won the US presidential election in November. However, the dispute over the election results so far has not been settled yet, creating a divided US with “one country, two voices” that is difficult to unite in the short term.

When he comes to power, Biden will face a series of challenges such as conflict between the black and the whites, a part of the population losing faith in the government, and the economy severely affected by the pandemic. The inherent advantages of the United States can gradually decrease, making many people think that the country has fallen into an irreversible recession.

Those who trust the incumbent US President asserted that only Trump could make America great again. Even a number of retired generals and intellectuals emphasized Trump was "the only candidate" who could lead America back to strength, the election of Biden means America has lost.

Just looking at the objective factors, it can be seen that the current US situation is really not good. According to the World News, there is a relatively serious view that the era of US hegemony is over and it will never return. According to the theory of historical cycle, the United States has dominated the world for 75 years since the end of World War II and it may follow the same path of collapse of the ancient Roman empire or the British, German, and Japanese empires.

In addition, in recent years, the US has exposed many problems, with the latter being more serious than the previous one. Those are the controlled government power, budget deficit and unprecedented national debt. A long list of internal problems was the main cause of America's decline, making the age of the US ordering the world gradually come to an end.

Firstly, on foreign affairs, Donald Trump's unilateralism, the "America First" policy and the effect of the US withdrawal from international organizations have forced the US’s allies from Europe to Asia to find ways to save and protect themselves either by self-reliance or multilateral agreements.

Biden stressed that "America is back." Indeed, the US has retained its weight, but the era when it wants to dominate the situation and determine the world with one word may have disappeared forever. The United States will remain the world's largest military power for the next few decades, but if excluding its ability to use force, the country’s diplomacy and international influence have declined while the position of the US dollar is also being seriously challenged.

Since Trump led the global boycott of Chinese telecom group Huawei's 5G network equipment, the stances of the countries have continuously changed. In September 2020, the United Nations General Assembly issued a global resolution on anti-pandemic cooperation, with 193 member countries supporting and only the US and Israel objecting. It demonstrates the falling reputation of "the world's big brother".

Secondly, the US still dominates the world in key technology, military power, higher education and research and development, but its dominance is somewhat decreasing. For example, China is gradually catching up with the US in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) and big data, while the US financial deficit is increasingly exacerbating due to the impact of the pandemic.

When Trump took office, the national debt of the US was 19.947 trillion USD, which now exceeds 26 trillion USD, surpassing the total GDP of the whole year (21.700 trillion USD). If the US Congress approves a second bailout plan later this year or early next year, the national debt will reach 30 trillion USD and the US will fall into irreversible debt.

Thirdly, the democratic politics that America has been proud of is under attack from all sides. After the failure as described by the media, Trump "tied" his supporters to the so-called "vote fraud", criticizing the governments of the states where he failed (including those ruled by his Republican party), and discrediting the judges who ruled against him as if they were destroying the national system. Rumors have become popular, and for the first time in 232 years since the enactment of the US Constitution, democracy has been trampled down and America has faced an unprecedented division.

Fourthly, since the time before the election, conflicts between the white and the black and between the police and the public have still existed. The COVID-19 pandemic has widened the gap between the rich and the poor. Currently, there are still more than 10 million unemployed people, while about 50 million people, or nearly one-sixth of the US population, is in shortage of food. The above story is driven by a motive from populism again. Therefore, if he wants to loosen health insurance or immigration policies, Biden will be boycotted by conservatives. America is like an arsenal of gunpowder that is about to explode. How to revive it is unprecedented hard.

Fifthly, Americans have long believed in pragmatism, but now the country's infrastructure is in ruins, government debt is as high as mountains, and most people live in debt. The Donald Trump administration proposed a 1 trillion USD infrastructure-building program was supposed to win votes. Even anti-pandemic cooperation has been carried out in the context of being influenced by individual liberalism and attacked by politicians. Now, the epidemic situation in the US is still going on seriously.

Previously, experts believed that the United States had a soft power and a strong ability to self-alert and repair. Over 240 years of history, the country has experienced a lot of pain, but then recovered. It has not only restored its vitality, but also brought the nation's power to a new level. So can America continue to be lucky this time? Does it still have the capacity to overcome shocks or does "the sun really set"? Maybe this will be another controversy.

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)