APD | Is the American Empire on Decline?

Editor's note: the author is Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Editor, Analyst, Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.

Either declared or unacknowledged, the roots of the American Empire, go back to the World Wars Era. In October 1940, report to Franklin Roosevelt, Bowman wrote that "the U.S. government is interested in any solution anywhere in the world that affects American Trade. In a broad sense, commerce is the mother of all wars." In 1942 this economic globalism was articulated as the "Grand Area" concept in secret documents. The U.S. would have to have control over the "Western Hemisphere, Continental Europe and Mediterranean Basin (excluding Russia), the Pacific Area and the Far East, and the British Empire (excluding Canada)." The Grand Area encompassed all known major oil-bearing areas outside the Soviet Union, mainly at the behest of corporate partners like the Foreign Oil Committee and the Petroleum Industry War Council. The U.S. thus avoided overt territorial acquisition, like that of the British and French empires, as being too costly, choosing the cheaper option of forcing countries to open their door to American capitalism.

American imperialism comprises policies aimed at extending the political, economic, and cultural influence of the United States over areas beyond its boundaries. Either it may include military conquest, gunboat diplomacy, unequal treaties, subsidization of preferred factions, or economic penetration through private companies followed by intervention when those interests are threatened, or regime change.

Although the United States was the last major belligerent to join World War II, it began planning for the post-war world from the conflict's outset. This postwar vision originated in the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), an economic elite-led organization that became integrated into the government leadership. CFR's War and Peace Studies group offered its services to the State Department in 1939, and a secret partnership for post-war planning developed. CFR leaders Hamilton Fish Armstrong and Walter H. Mallory saw World War II as a "grand opportunity" for the U.S. to emerge as "the premier power in the world."

The original vision of the empire assumed the necessity of the U.S. to "police the world" in the aftermath of world war II. It was not done primarily out of altruism, but out of economic interests.

Better than the American Century or the Pax Americana, the notion of an American Lebensraum captures the specific and global historical geography of U.S. ascension to power. After World War II, global power would no longer be measured in terms of colonized land or influence over the territory. Instead, global power was measured indirectly in economic terms. As a new concept, Trade and markets figured as the economic nexuses of global power. A visible shift confirmed in the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement, which not only inaugurated an international currency system but also established two central banking institutions—the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (W.B.)—to oversee the global economy. These represented the first planks of the economic infrastructure of the postwar American Empire. The U.S. was exploiting IMF, World Bank, and other International Organizations in their interest politically. Nations were coerced and brought under the U.S. control through such International Organizations.

The U.S. launched the Marshal Programme and reconstructed war-torn Western Europe and gained a strong alliance with them. Building Infrastructure, improved connectivity, and American influence over Europe. Hosting the U.N. and the creation of several organizations under U.N., liberal funding of International Organizations, led Americ to influence them and dominate the world. Establishing military bases around the World and Naval supremacy ensured American hegemony. Regime change, supporting insurgencies, revolts, and assassinations of several world leaders opposing America was witnessed. The U.S. was installing pro-American puppet Governments, cultivating lobbyists, and helping them to be appointed on the key-decision making positions in foreign countries, guaranteed American interests.

Liberal immigration policies, helped the U.S. to attract the best brains worldwide, who are the actual contributor to the development of America.

The decline of the American Empire

At its peak after the disintegration of the former USSR in 1991, a unique Superpower in the unipolar world, the U.S. became too proud，greedy and aggressive. It started making mistakes and blunders one after another. The War on Terror, Middle-east Wars, Afghan Wars, etc., has cost heavily. On the other hand, the rise of China, the revival of Russia, were the major factors threatening American Hegemony.

A humiliating defeat in Afghanistan, and Syria, forced the U.S. to pull out its troops. The assassination of the Iranian General bounced backed, and the U.S. lost its reputation worldwide. Scraping the Iran-Nuclear deal, banning free sky agreement with Russia, launching a trade war with China, exit from WHO, suspension of funding to U.N. organizations, are only a few parameters of American downfall.

Contrary to the expectations, when the allies needed the U.S. help most, the Americans could not rescue them from Pandemic. Pandemic has exposed the U.S. completely; the American traditional leadership role was not visible anywhere. Unfortunately, the U.S. became the worst-hit country with the highest number of infections and well as the highest death toll due to COVID-19.

As long as the American Economy was good, people were rich and enjoying a comfortable life; there was no issue at all. As soon as the economy suffered, either due to Pandemic or poor planning, but people became upset and crazy. Widespread unrest is felt everywhere; violence and intolerance were observed. The U.S. society is moving toward more chaos and instability. Protests have engulfed almost the whole country, curfew, and "shoot at the spot," are further fueled the unrest. America is a "gun-Culture" society and can move into the next stage of dangerous violence if appropriate measures are not taken in time.

The CIA has known for its acts of subversion, violence, sabotage, assassinations, and toppling unfriendly governments around the world, but were not trained to handle protests inside America. American forces are severely lacking to address the domestic violence, even the white house is not safe, and President Trump, along with his family, has to be moved to a safe place.

If appropriate measures are not placed in time, the collapse of the American Empire is inevitable. The intellects think tanks and visionary individuals may come out to rescue America, or it may lead toward a civil war-like situation.

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)