America’s strategic misjudgment and miscalculation in the South China Sea issue

USactionandreactiontotheSouthChinaSeaissuehaveindicatedthattheAmericanshavemisjudgedtheissueandmiscalculateditsstrategyintheregion.AmericanowperceivesChinaasitsrival,notapartner,andbeginsto“contain”ChinabyworkingcloselywithitsalliesandclaimantstateswhichhaveterritorialdisputeswithChinaintheregion.AmisjudgedstrategywillbecostlytoAmerica.

Geopoliticallyspeaking,ChinaandtheUSdonothavedirectgeopoliticalconflictintheSouthChinaSea,onlytheUS’sself-defined“freedomofnavigation.”ThefreedomofnavigationisinChina’snationalinteresttoo.Chinatodayisnowthelargesttradingnationintheworldandmorethan80percentofitstrade(importandexport)gothroughtheSouthChinaSea.ItisnotinChina’sinteresttodisturbthefreedomofnavigationintheregionasitwillhurtChina’seconomybadly.

USpresenceintheregionisahistoricalfactrecognizedbyChina.WhileheavyUSpresenceintheregionisregardedbysomeinChinaasathreat,ChinadoesnothaveitsownversionoftheMonroeDoctrinetodriveUSinfluenceoutoftheregion.Inreality,ChinawelcomescontinuousUSpresenceintheregionanditsprovisionofpublicgoods,includingthefreedomofnavigation.ChineseleadershavealwaysmaintainedthattheywelcomeandsupportapositiveroleoftheUSintheregion.

However,theUShasmisjudgedChina,itsintentionanditsrole.Itbaseditsjudgementonitsownhistoricalexperienceasanexpansionisticempireanditsdeeplyrootedgreatpowerideology,andnotonChina’sdiplomaticperformanceintheregion.WhenGeorgeW.Bushcametopower,risingneo-conservativesmadeanattempttocontainChinaasitperceivedChinaasitscompetitorandevenitsenemyafterthecollapseoftheSovietUnion.Today,eventhoughtheUSnolongeremploystheneo-conservativerhetoric,the“pivottoAsia”strategycontinuestoreflectsuchanideology.TheUShasrepeatedlyemphasizedthattheSouthChinaSeamustberesolvedpeacefullywithoutabignationpresidingoversmallerneighbors.

Foryears,itwasChina’ssmallerneighbors,particularlyVietnam,whohaveoccupiedmostoftheislands,rocksandreefs,andreclaimedlandintheprocesslongbeforeChinadid.

Thereismuchwisdominthisapproach,butitisbiasedinChina’scontext.ThelateDengXiaopinghadcalledfor“jointdevelopment”byputtingasidetheissueofsovereigntyinSouthChinaSea.Dengrecognizedthatsovereigntyisacontroversialissuewhichcouldnotbesolved;hethusproposedjointdevelopment.However,nostaterespondedpositively.Foryears,itwasChina’ssmallerneighbors,particularlyVietnam,whohaveoccupiedmostoftheislands,rocksandreefs,andreclaimedlandintheprocesslongbeforeChinadid.Chinaisnottheinitiatoroffacilityconstructionortheoneto“carryoutmilitarizationofoutpost.”Chinamadeadiplomaticmistakewhenitdidnotcondemnsuchactsinternationally;instead,Chinaadopteditsconventional“face”diplomacywhenitmadeprivaterequeststothesestatesnottodoso.ItisthustoChina’schagrinthatwhenitdidlikewise,thesesmallerstatesattemptedtosolvetheissueby“internationalizing”it.

TheUShasmiscalculateditsChinastrategyonseveralfronts.First,asarisingpowerwithstrongnationalism,ChinawillresistUSaggressiveness.WhiletheChinesepublichaveissueswiththeChineseCommunistPartyanditsgovernmentoverdomesticaffairs,theystandunitedbehindthegovernmentovertheSouthChinaSeaoranyotherissuesrelatingtosovereigntyandChina’s“core”nationalinterests.NoChinesewouldwanttheirChineseleadersto“giveup”China’sinterestintheSouthChinaSea.AnyleaderwhodoessoisputtingtheParty’slegitimacyatrisk.Simplyput,noChineseleadercanaffordtofullyignorenationalisticsentiments.

Second,fortheChinese,itsgovernment’sactionisjustifiableasitismerelyreactingtowhatotherstateshavedone.DuringHuJintao’sreign,thegovernmentwasblamedfornottakinganyeffectivemeasurestostoptheactivitiesofotherstatesintheSouthChinaSea.XiJinping’spro-activediplomacy,includingtheperceived“assertive”and“aggressive”actionintheSouthChinaSea,isstronglysupportedbyitspeople.

Thirdandmoreimportantly,ChinahasthecapacitytoresisttheUS.Chinaisnowthenumbertwoeconomyintheworld.Despitetherecenteconomicslowdown,itsgrowthratecontinuestobeoneofhighestintheworld.China’stotalGDPwillbecomelargerthanthatoftheUSanytimesoon.AlthoughChina’spercapitaGDPisstillsmallerthanthatoftheUS,butsizematters.China’stechnologicalknowhowhasreachedastagewherebreakthroughsarepossible.

TheUSisnowinacatch22situationwhereitisunabletoretreat.WhilethereisnationalinterestconvergencebetweentheUSandthesestatesinsomeareas,themaximizationofnationalinterestsofthesestatesisnotnecessarilyintheinterestoftheUS.

TheUSalsomisjudgedthesupportitwouldreceivefromChina’sneighbors.InthelatestsummithostedbyUSPresidentBarackObamaforASEANmemberstatesattheSunnylandsestatenearPalmSprings,California,ajointstatementwasissued.Thestatementoutlinedprinciplestoguidetheircooperationinareaslikepromotingdemocracyandeconomicgrowth,respectingASEANcentrality,fightingclimatechange,terrorismandviolentextremism,andpromotingpeople-to-peopleconnectivity.DespitetensionsintheSouthChinaSea,thestatementdidnotmentionChinaortheSCS.Instead,itstressedprinciplessuchasa“rules-basedregionalandinternationalorder”,“peacefulresolutionofdisputes,”“freedomofnavigationandoverflight”and“non-militarizationandself-restraint.”

Vietnam’sandthePhilippines’questfortheUStodeterChinafromtakingfurtheractionintheSouthChinaSeaevidentlydidnotresonatewiththoseofotherASEANmemberstates.Inreality,mostASEANstateswanttomaintainfriendlyrelationswithChinaforeconomicreasonsandtocontinuetobenefitfromChina’seconomicrise.TheywelcomeUSpresencetobalancearisingChina,intheeconomicarenabutnotinthemilitaryrealm.

Besides,ChinahasadoptedadiplomacyquiteunlikethatoftheUS.TheUShadsanctionedCubaforhalfacenturyuntilrecently.ForChina,despitetheveryhostileandconfrontationalpoliticalanddiplomaticrelationswiththePhilippinesinrecentyears,ithasnotceasedtradeandcommercialrelationswiththecountry.ManyChinesebelievethattheworseningrelationshipwiththePhilippinesislargelyattributedtoitspro-Americapresidentandtiescouldbenormalizedassoonasanotherpresidenttakesthehelm.InthecaseofitsrelationswithVietnam,thetwocommunistpartiescontinuetomaintaincordialrelations,sohavegovernmenttogovernmentrelations.ThelatestleadershipchangesinVietnamalsoshowthatpro-USleadersarelosingtheirmomentum,andVietnam’srelationswithChinaisexpectedtobestable.ThesedevelopmentsindicatethatChinaanditssmallneighboringstatesareawareofthegeopoliticalnecessityofpeacefulco-existence.

OnChina’spart,itcontinuestoinsistonapeacefulresolutiontotheSouthChinaSeaterritorialdisputes.DespitehighpressurefromtheUS,Chinahasshownunwaveringstrength.USinterventionintheSouthChinaSeaissuehascostitdearlyinmostdimensions.ForChina,whatitneedsispatience.Itdoesnothaveanimperialmission.WhileitdoesnotwelcometheUS’sprovocativemilitaryaction,itdoesnothaveanyintentiontofightanaimlesswarwiththeUSeither.Asoneoftheoldestcivilizationsintheworld,itdrawsvaluablelessonsfromitspast:thatthedeclineofagreatpowerisnotbecauseofthechallengesfromanotherrisingpower,butbecauseofitsownmisjudgmentandmiscalculation.

AboutWriter:Zheng Yongnian

YongnianZhengisProfessorandDirectorofEastAsianInstitute,NationalUniversityofSingapore.HeisEditorofSeriesonContemporaryChina(WorldScientificPublishing)andEditorofChinaPolicySeries(Routledge).Heisalsoaco-editorofChina:AnInternationalJournal.HehasstudiedbothChina'stransformationanditsexternalrelations.

(IPPReviw)