Economic outlook brighter for 2016, a central bank report says

Anumberofpositivefactorswillgraduallygaintractionin2016,althoughdownwardpressuresongrowthsuchasovercapacity,profitdecelerationandrisingnonprofitloanswillpersist,accordingtoaresearchreportfromthePeople'sBankofChina.

MaJun,chiefeconomistatthecentralbank'sresearchbureau,saidabaselineforecastforrealGDPgrowthin2016is6.8percent,slightlylowerthantheexpectationof6.9percentforthisyear.Fornextyear,thebaselineCPIinflationforecastis1.7percent,hesaid.

Realestateinvestmentwillseeaslowrebound,headded.

SalesofChina'scommercialresidentialbuildingsincreasedbyanaverage22.4percentyear-on-yearfromApriltoNovember,muchhigherthanaminus7.8percentyear-on-yearintheprevious15months.

Growthinlandtransferfeesof300majorcitiespickedupinthepastseveralmonths.Therecoveryofthetwoindexesisexpectedtorestoreinvestors'confidence;however,therewillbeatimedelaygiventhehighinventoryandweakdemandinsomemediumtosmallcities,soinvestmentisexpectedtopickupinthesecondhalfof2016,Masaid.

Macroandstructuralpoliciesareexpectedtoshowdelayedimpacts.ThePeople'sBankofChinahasloweredinterestratesandthereserverequirementratiofivetimessincethebeginningof2015,whichhasgreatlyreducedfinancingcosts.

Alongwiththeproactivefiscalmeasuresadoptedbythegovernment,thepolicyadjustmentsareexpectedtohaveameasurableimpactonCPIoveraperiodofaboutfivequarters.CPIfacesupwardrisksincludingreboundsinoil,andfoodandrealestateprices,whilethedownwardrisksincludelingeringlowoilpricesandfallingcommodityprices,ledbyastrongerdollar,accordingtoMa.

Servicesandgreenindustrieswillbethenewdrivers.Emergingindustriessuchasculture,entertainment,tourism,housekeepingservices,environmentalprotectiontreatment,cleanenergy,electriccars,e-commerceandintelligentmanufacturinghavegraduallybecomenewdriversfortheeconomy.

Demandforhousekeepingserviceswillcontinuetogrowthankstothenew"two-childpolicy"andanagingpopulation.Morestringentenvironmentalstandardsandenforcementwillsupportgreeninvestmentandbolsterthedevelopmentofnewenergy,energyefficiencyandenvironmentalprotection,thereportsaid.

Onlinevideoisexpectedtohavegreaterpotentialfordevelopmentduetoimprovedintellectualpropertyprotectionformoviesandtelevisionprograms.TheimplementationoftheChinaManufacturing2025strategywillpromotethedevelopmentofindustriessuchasthenewgenerationtelecommunicationtechnologies,numericalcontrolmachinetools,oceanengineeringequipment,newmaterialsandbiologicalmedicine,Masaid.