简体中文
A "Yes" vote in the Sept. 18 referendum on Scotland's independence could trigger "a chain of troubling impacts," analysts say.
Thursday's referendum, destined to be historic, will decide on whether Scotland will remain part of the United Kingdom (UK), thus, of the EU and NATO, or become an independent state with all the consequences.
Opinion pools showed the population of Scotland got split into two almost equal parts of pro- and against the independence, not taking into account quite large share of undecided, which will actually be the decisive votes in the referendum.
Shaking up EU politics
From the EU perspective, "whatever the outcome of the Scottish referendum, the vote will shake up European Union politics," said Giles Merritt, secretary-general of Brussels-based thinktank "Friends of Europe" in an interview with Xinhua.
He said in the event of a "No" vote, in order to solve the still existing dispute, the British central government would likely make concessions to give more power to the Scots.
"Britain, which has been a centralized country, may become a federal state," Merritt warned. "If British shifted to federal, then maybe we would move a step nearer towards a federal Europe."
On political balance in UK
From the UK perspective, a "Yes" result would make it more likely that the Conservatives would gain a net majority in the May 2015 British general election, Michael Wriglesworth, senior advisor at Brussels-based thinktank The Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS), told Xinhua.
A "Yes" result would make it more likely that the Conservatives are able to hold an "in or out" referendum on Britain's EU membership in 2017, with a significant danger that the result would be "out" without Scotland, "since the Scots are generally more supportive of the EU than the English," Wriglesworth said.
This view is echoed by Fabian Zuleeg, chief executive of Brussels-based thinktank European Policy Centre.
Zuleeg told Xinhua that he believes that the Scottish referendum if turning out to be a "Yes" vote could well have impacts on the likelihood and outcome of a potential Britain in-out referendum on EU membership.
"A Scottish exit from the UK would force Labour to compete very aggressively for votes in the more Eurosceptic South of England, making an EU in-out referendum much more likely," the analyst said.
A Scottish exit, involving negotiations of Scottish EU membership, might also make it difficult for Britain to renegotiate its terms simultaneously, making it harder to win a "in-out" referendum, he explained to Xinhua.
And, if the UK were to leave the EU, Wriglesworth warned, "the impacts would be huge, unpredictable, but not good for anyone."
On Scotland and EU membership
In case of a "Yes" vote, both the EU and Scotland will have to address the question of EU membership. "If the Scots got independent and want to join the EU and NATO, that will immediately creates political crisis in Europe," said Merritt of "Friends of Europe".
He thinks that the Spanish and Italian governments which have their own "separatist" problem will press other countries to reject Scotland's EU accession request.
"It will take more or less several years to address the case before Spain and Italy being persuaded to say 'yes'," a development that will distract people's attention from Europe's real problems of high unemployment and low growth, according to Merritt.
Scottish authorities think that it will not be the problem, because it will "immediately enter into negotiations with Westminster and EU member states to ensure that an independent Scotland achieves a smooth and timely transition to independent membership of the EU."
Scottish government said Article 48 of the EU Treaty, under which existing members can modify their relations, should be applied in order for Scotland to become a new member of the EU when Scotland becomes completely independent in 2016. However, EU experts are not so positive on this.
The European Commission insists on application of the Article 49 of the EU Treaty, governing the accession of the new member states, which makes it more difficult for Scotland to accede.
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso has stated earlier this year that Scotland would need to apply like any prospective state and that it would be "extremely difficult, if not impossible."
According to Wriglesworth, Spanish officials have recently rejected the vision that Scotland could negotiate membership "from within" the EU, saying it would have to apply from scratch and follow the usual accession process.
"There is a danger that Spain would veto an independent Scotland joining the EU, taking into account the issue of Catalonia, as Barroso, then Juncker have implicitly warned," Wriglesworth said. "Belgium and Italy could also be the case of veto."
Furthermore, President-Elect of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker has the position not to enlarge EU in the coming five years.
In October 2012, British Prime Minister David Cameron and Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond signed the Edinburgh Agreement, allowing Scotland to hold an independence referendum in autumn 2014 on the question of "Should Scotland be an independent country?"
All three major political parties in Britain have been opposed to the Scottish independence, but promised to offer more devolved powers for Scotland if Scots vote "No."
The polls are scheduled to open at 7 a.m. on Thursday and close at 10 p.m. local time. Counting of the votes begins at 32 regional centers of Scotland after the end of polls. First results are expected to begin from around 1 a.m. onwards on Friday.
The final overall result of all 32 local totals will be announced by the Chief Counting Officer in Edinburgh at around 6: 30 a.m.-7.30 a.m. on Friday morning at the earliest.
About 4.29 million people have registered to vote in the referendum, and both the "Yes" and "No" campaigns expect the turnout to be high.
