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U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a tour of Puritan Medical Products medical swab manufacturing facility in Guilford, Maine, U.S., June 5, 2020. /AP
Editor's note: Mike Cormack is a writer, editor and reviewer mostly focusing on China, where he lived from 2007 to 2014. He edited Agenda Beijing and is a regular book reviewer for the South China Morning Post. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
Winning elections is the art of building coalitions. There are many different demographic and interest groups in every nation, and putting them together, keeping them together and motivating them to get out and vote is what delivers electoral success. (Luck and the quality of your opponent are the other major factors). Ronald Reagan famously benefited from the votes of "Reagan Democrats" who turned from their party to vote for him. Margaret Thatcher was assiduous, through most of her premiership, in courting the votes of the skilled working classes. Barack Obama's electoral wins brought together black voters with suburban and urban whites.
Donald Trump's victory in 2016 conformed to this. He was probably lucky in his opponent Hillary Clinton, who while highly experienced had the taint of previous political charges still clinging to her. But electorally he put together a coalition of what has been called "right-wing hardliners, older white guys, conservative Christians, anti-government loners, displaced rural and industrial workers and the more generally aggrieved," alongside more moderate Republican voters who perhaps stuck through to party loyalty. (For example, he took 47 percent of the white female vote in 2016 against Clinton's 45 percent, according to a study by the Pew Research Center, which in retrospect seems astonishing.)
Trump has only ever governed with his base in mind, and so to win in November he must repeat the trick, having never won over any independents. But the signs, quite apart from his decline in the polls, are ominous. In particular, the Republican establishment that largely held its nose and backed him over Hillary Clinton is now, four years later, turning against him. And not only are they declining to vote for him: they are saying they will actively vote for his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden.
Colin Powell's decision to come out against Trump is perhaps not surprising – he publicly endorsed Obama twice, in 2008 and 2012. Yet he too is a high-ranking and respected Republican, a former secretary of state, commander of the U.S. Army Forces Command and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (the first African American to hold that post). Powell's statement – "We have a Constitution. We have to follow that Constitution. And the president's drifted away from it" – is likely to hit home with those in uniform, who, after all, pledge to serve the Constitution, not the president.
Former U.S. President George W. Bush speaks at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library as he promotes his upcoming book "Portraits of Courage: A Commander in Chief's Tribute to America's Warriors" in Simi Valley, California, March 1, 2017. /CFP
George W. Bush was not a distinguished president. His presidency began under a cloud, with question marks over the legitimacy of his victory following a Supreme Court decision in the key state of Florida. His response to the 9/11 attacks saw his popularity soar, yet his decision to invade Iraq on what were clearly spurious grounds saw that dwindle rapidly. But worse still was his handling of post-war Iraq, where Bush's disastrous decisions (such as the disbanding of the Iraqi civil service), statements ("Mission accomplished!") and appointments (Paul Bremer as the Provisional Coalition Administrator of Iraq) saw the country slide into what was essentially an undeclared civil war. Since the end of his time in office, his reputation has slid among Republicans, who now see his term as overly centrist (through the expansion of Medicaid for seniors and not acting with the rigor desired on immigration).
Yet he is a two-term president and has acted with dignity with leaving office. He has largely avoided commenting on domestic political affairs. So suggestions that he will not vote for Trump have caused something of a stir. More importantly, as a former president, he would give political cover to other high-ranking Republicans to join him in dissenting against Trump. Several who served under Trump's administration, such as his Defense Secretary James Mattis, have already made clear what they think of Trump's unfitness, but it is very likely that more have been lined up for effective political use during the election campaign. (A spokesman for Bush denied the allegations on Monday, saying that he would not comment on the 2020 election – though that itself suggests a lack of enthusiasm for Trump).
Trump, of course, will dismiss both men as exemplars of a rotten elite or from a time of political failure. He has never been one to turn the other cheek, always responding to attacks with vitriol. (He has already tweeted that Powell is "a real stiff who was very responsible for getting us into the disastrous Middle East Wars." Grace has never been Trump's strong suit). But these two are not the only Republicans turning on Trump. The former presidential candidate Mitt Romney, now a senator for Utah, had already made clear his dislike of Trump, as the only Republican to vote for Trump's impeachment. Alaskan Senator Lisa Murkowski has said that she is "struggling" to support Trump, while media reports suggest that Cindy McCain, widow of Republican Senator John McCain, is likely to vote for Biden.
Elite support, as Trump has proven previously, is not the deciding factor in an election. But the support of mainstream Republicans was an essential component of Trump's victory in 2012. Should he lose this, there are no other sources of support that he can tap, having presided in an unfailingly contentious, partisan manner. Trump thus finds himself at the mercy of people he has long despised, with no means of repairing (or even forging) any relationship to his benefit. But then again, he has shown himself time and time again throughout his presidency to be very bad at politics.
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