Is new Secretary of state Pompeo in tune with Trump on foreign policy?

Secretary of state is typically one of the more stable positions in the US government, occupied by a person seen to be trusted by and in lockstep with the president.

In the case of Rex Tillerson, this was not the case. He and Donald Trump reportedly had a poor personal relationship – illustrated by Tillerson’s alleged description of the president as a “moron” – and differed on major policy issues.

Then US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson (L) and US President Donald Trump wait for a luncheon with US and African leaders in New York, US, September 20, 2017.

In remarks to reporters about Tillerson’s firing – and before speaking directly to the former ExxonMobil CEO about his decision – Trump singled out the Iran nuclear deal as an area of particular disagreement.

The man who Trump has nominated to succeed Tillerson, CIA Director Mike Pompeo, is a hawkish former Republican congressman.

The 54-year-old has an extensive foreign policy and Washington experience, and is known to have a good relationship with the president. The men are “almost always on the same wavelength,” Trump said on Tuesday.

The new appointment – if confirmed by the Senate – could have serious implications for US foreign policy. Whereas Tillerson was regarded as a moderating force, alongside Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, Pompeo is seen as a hardline figure who has the president’s ear and respect.

Pompeo on...

Iran nuclear deal

Pompeo has called for the Iran nuclear deal to be scrapped. He has criticized Tehran throughout his career, accusing it of being a primary cause of instability in the Middle East. Pompeo’s Twitter account is not currently active, but various reports logged the tweet, “I look forward to rolling back this disastrous deal with the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism,” shortly after Trump was elected.

_In tune with Trump? _Yes. Whereas Tillerson and Mattis supported the existing Iran deal, Trump has repeatedly denounced it.

Korean Peninsula

Pompeo has said military options against Pyongyang should be considered, and that the administration must “separate” the DPRK leader Kim Jong Un from the country’s weapons. The New York Times quoted Pompeo as saying in July 2017: “Separate capacity and someone who might well have intent and break those two apart.” As CIA chief, he has warned that Pyongyang is “a few months away” from being able to strike the US with a nuclear weapon and said he was working to ensure the president had "the full sweep of possibilities" available.

CIA Director Mike Pompeo speaks at the American Enterprise Institute, January 23, 2018, in Washington, DC. Pompeo stated that the White House wants a diplomatic solution on the Korean Peninsula, but the CIA is working to give President Trump the full range of options.

_In tune with Trump? _No and yes. Trump last week agreed to a face-to-face meeting with the DPRK leader, a dialogue approach akin to the Tillerson plan. But the president has previously suggested military options were on the table and has used hardline language, more in line with Pompeo's past remarks. Pompeo said in TV interviews at the weekend that he had been studying the history of US-DPRK negotiations.

Russia

Pompeo criticized the Obama administration for not being tough enough on Russia, and during his confirmation hearing to be CIA director said that Russia has "reasserted itself aggressively, invading and occupying Ukraine, threatening Europe, and doing nothing to aid in the destruction and defeat of ISIS." He has said there's no doubt Russia meddled in the 2016 presidential election, and warned Moscow will attempt to interfere in the 2018 midterms.

In tune with Trump? No. Trump has avoided direct criticisms of Russia. Pompeo has been a longstanding Russia hawk, although he has downplayed any effect alleged meddling had on the 2016 election result.

Paris climate deal

Pompeo criticized the Obama administration’s focus on climate change, and opposed the Paris climate deal. Climate groups on Tuesday hit out at his appointment, noting that he is the top recipient of campaign donations from the billionaire Koch brothers, who have financed lobbying efforts against climate change regulations.

_In tune with Trump? _Yes. Trump has said the US will pull out of the Paris climate deal, a move former oilman Tillerson is reported to have opposed.

Trade policy

US markets fell on Tuesday on fears that a trade war was made more likely by the secretary of state switch. Analysts saw Tillerson as a backer of free markets and fear Pompeo may take a harsher line on trade issues.

_In tune with Trump? _Yes. Pompeo has supported Trump’s “America First” approach. Tillerson, along with Gary Cohn, who quit as head of the National Economic Council last week, attempted to restrain Trump’s instincts on trade tariffs.

Jerusalem

Pompeo is a regarded as a strong supporter of Israel. Israeli Intelligence Minister Israel Katz tweeted to “thank him for his support of Israel” on Tuesday. A report in the Times of Israel stated on Tuesday, "the new secretary has the potential to change the face of American diplomacy vis-a-vis the Middle East."

In tune with Trump? Maybe. Pompeo didn’t publically comment on the US decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, a move reportedly opposed by Tillerson, but does hold a pro-Israel stance.

Pompeo’s other challenges

The first challenge for Pompeo is getting confirmed by the Senate in April. Having already been confirmed as CIA director on a 66-32 margin, it would be a surprise if he were not approved. The process will not necessarily be smooth, however, especially if the Democrats see an opportunity to score points in an election year.

A second challenge is recruiting people to fill overseas posts that have sat vacant since Trump came to office. Forty-four US embassies – including South Korea, Turkey, Germany, Saudi Arabia and Egypt – are without an ambassador, USA Today reported on Tuesday.

Tillerson’s plan to reinvent the State Department on a model similar to a large corporation led to many senior diplomats leaving – re-staffing the department will be a priority. Pompeo is seen as a more canny political operator than Tillerson, and worked effectively with longtime CIA workers.

More departures?

The long list of White House departures could increase soon, with Veterans Affairs Secretary David Shulkin rumored to be under pressure.

The Tillerson firing also removes a Mattis ally. The defense secretary in January said of his relationship with the Texan: “We talk two, three times a day, sometimes. We settle all of our issues between he and I, and then we walk together into the White House meetings. That way, State and Defense are together.”

(CGTN)