Hariri's U-turn a breather but Lebanon still holds its breath

A sense of cautious relief prevails in Lebanon after Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced he is putting his resignation on hold. But the respite could be short-lived as questions abound about the circumstances of the surprise reversal of his equally perplexing decision to step down, with few answers provided so far.

"I presented my resignation to his excellency the president (Michel Aoun), who wished that I wait on tendering it for more consultations on its reasons and political backgrounds," Hariri told reporters from the presidential palace in Baada, a day after touching down in Beirut, adding that he was responsive to Aoun’s request.

Hariri expressed hope that freezing his resignation would give way to a "dialogue to treat contentious issues and their consequences on the relations of Lebanon with the Arab brothers."

His pronouncement triggered scenes of jubilation among his supporters, who converged outside his residence in downtown Beirut to welcome him back, chanting his name and waving the blue flag of the Future Movement party, which he leads.

Lebanese President Michel Aoun (L) walks next to Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri /Xinhua Photo

Seismic resignation

Earlier this month, the Sunni political figure caused a political earthquake when he declared from Saudi Arabia, his regional patron, he was standing down from office, much to the surprise of everyone, including his own political aides and allies.

In a televised address, Hariri revealed that he feared for his life in Lebanon, accused Iran – Riyadh’s arch nemesis – of sowing strife in the region, and criticized the intervention of Hezbollah – a Lebanese ally of Tehran and an integral part of the unity government Hariri formed less than a year ago – in Middle Eastern conflicts.

The unusual harsh wording of his statement and the mysterious circumstances surrounding his resignation triggered wide speculation that he was coerced by the Saudis into quitting, with some, including the Lebanese president, going as far as accusing Riyadh of holding Hariri against his will – allegations both the Saudi authorities and Hariri himself vehemently denied.

In the weeks that followed, Hariri remained out of sight and contact. His resignation plunged Lebanon into uncertainty and stoked fears about its destabilizing repercussions on its fragile political situation.

But on Wednesday, that seemed like a distant memory when a relaxed Hariri appeared before an excited and raucous crowd in central Beirut, smiling and joking with his supporters.

"I am staying with you and will continue with you," he told them.

Prime minister… for now

Hariri did not expound on the reasons that made him change his mind, although members of his political party were quick to stress that suspending the resignation does not equate to rescinding it.

Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Qabas quoted a political source familiar with Hariri’s U-turn as saying the prime minister has given himself a 15-day period before taking the final decision of either exiting or retaining his post in light of the flow of communication with other political parties and how responsive they are to his conditions.

It is yet unclear what form the consultations will take, or how long they will last. Also undisclosed is what Hariri actually wants, although his recent address shed a light on some of his demands.

There is a need to "abide by the (official Lebanese) policy of dissociation from regional conflicts and all that harms fraternal relations with the Arab brothers," Hariri said from the presidential palace.

A poster depicting Saad ‍Hariri is seen in Beirut, Lebanon, November 17, 2017. /Reuters Photo

Hariri’s remarks allude to Hezbollah’s foreign military activities.

The Shi’ite group has not been shy about its intervention in Syria and Iraq to fight ISIL, claiming that its role there is necessary to protect Lebanon from the danger of the terrorist group.

Riyadh has been increasingly incensed over Hezbollah’s expeditions in the region, which it sees as a sign of Iran’s expanding sway. It has accused the group of spreading chaos in the Gulf region, meddling in the internal affairs of Bahrain and Kuwait, and colliding with Yemen’s Houthis, also backed by Tehran, against which Saudis have waged a war since 2015. Hezbollah has repeatedly denied such allegations.

Observers note that Saudis have grown discontent with Hariri’s tolerance of Hezbollah’s behavior since heading the new unity government, and that the prime minister’s resignation is part of Riyadh’s plan to curtail the Lebanese group and its backer, Iran.

Keys to solution?

A few days before Hariri landed in Lebanon, Hezbollah announced it is considering recalling its fighters from Iraq after the extremist group was defeated in the town of Rawa, its very last urban stronghold in the country – a declaration that was thought to soften the tense political atmosphere in Lebanon.

"If we find that (the battle against ISIL in Iraq is) over, that there is no need for the presence of these brothers, they will return to be deployed in any other arena that needs them," Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said on Monday.

Narallah’s statement was followed by reassurances from the Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri, a close ally of Hezbollah, who was quoted ahead of Hariri’s arrival to Lebanon as saying, "We are willing to give guarantees (to Hariri) about dissociation if he goes back on his resignation".

The need for national accord between Lebanese factions has been the mantra of local leaders and international diplomats since the onset of the crisis.

However, the framework under which such a settlement could be created remains to be seen, as reaching consensus in a country that has long been the battleground for competing regional and international powers has previously proven elusive.

France, Egypt to the rescue

Hariri’s return to his home country and the decision to postpone announcing his resignation have been widely seen as the result of frenzied diplomatic efforts led by France, a former colonial ruler of Lebanon, to contain the turmoil in Lebanon and avert a full-fledged crisis.

French President Manuel Macron made an unannounced visit to Saudi Arabia on November 9 after Hariri’s surprise resignation from there, and met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Macron also extended an invitation to Paris, which Hariri visited with his wife last Saturday after two weeks of unexplained stay in Saudi Arabia.

Hariri then embarked on a whirlwind tour that took him from the French capital to Cairo where he met President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and then Nicosia where he held talks with Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades, who later announced his intentions to put forward an initiative to defuse the crisis in Lebanon without giving details.

The French-Egyptian mediation, Lebanese media reported, acted as a bulwark to prevent further deterioration of the situation, of fear that a political vacuum ahead of next year’s general elections could affect the country’s already shaky financial and security situation.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has kept quiet about the prime minister’s turnaround with some saying Hariri’s suspension of resignation "dealt a blow" to Riyadh.

However, sources in the Future Movement denied that the Saudi authorities insisted Hariri stick to his resignation, pointing out that they were "clear on the need to reach a new settlement that confirms Lebanon's absolute neutrality and defies the role of Hezbollah, especially in Yemen," according to a Lebanese online news website, elnashra.

Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri's recent travels. /CGTN Photo

Hariri’s political success hinges on the backing of Saudi Arabia, which has great leverage on the Lebanese-Saudi businessman with heavy investments there. The same goes for the efforts to reach concord between Lebanese parties as the Kingdom’s concerns, concessions, reservations and wants, as well as those of other regional heavyweight players, are expected to factor into the scramble to secure the situation in Lebanon.

Hariri’s own political crisis might have eased for the time being, but the real concern is that Lebanon’s upheaval might be chronic as the cards are being reshuffled in the Middle East.