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The 5G networks are coming but the big question is will the next-generation wireless technology deliver on the promise to be faster and smarter.
The expectation is that 5G will go beyond phones and link up everything from vehicles to household devices, or anything else with an Internet connection at far greater speeds.
Yet most consumers will wait years to experience the benefits. While the first commercial 5G projects will launch in the United States in 2018, many users in emerging markets are still awaiting 4G and are likely to have to grapple with ropey 3G connections for years more.
Among industry insiders, the debate is about whether 5G will deliver on all the promises that its most excited proponents make and how much they can afford to roll out the new technology when profits are squeezed by competition and regulation.
Unlike 2G, 3G and 4G wireless that focused on mobile phones, the promoters of 5G say it offers faster, more stable connections for cars, homes, factories and offices.
Norway’s Telenor is testing uses of 5G in driverless snowplows, traffic systems and even autonomous boats for the nation’s fishing industry. Yet it is unlikely to deploy 5G commercially before 2020 and Telenor’s boss remains cautious about what the technology will offer.
“5G is, so far, too much hype, in the sense of its position as a new revolutionary technology,” Telenor chief executive Sigve Brekke told Reuters at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, where 5G overshadowed other topics.
“I look at 5G as much more an evolution on what we already have,” he said at the conference, attended by executives from the world’s mobile network operators and technology suppliers.
Telenor expects 5G to complement existing networks, helping cut operating costs after the hefty capital outlay and offering greater scope for delivering high bandwidth video and almost instantaneous links for autonomous cars or medical procedures.
5G promoters say it can deliver data at least 10 times faster than 4G and cut latency, the lag-time when data is sent or received. As well offering new applications, extra speed makes it easier to store data in the cloud instead of on a device.
Yet 4G advances and new software could offer many of the benefits promised by 5G, Chuck Robbins, chief executive of networks supplier Cisco, said in Barcelona.
Nordea Bank analysts told investors there “seems to be a bit too much optimism on which industry issues 5G will solve.”
Rollout
The first commercial 5G projects launch in the United States this year and will be followed by Japan and South Korea in 2019. China is expected to join the fray in 2020.
For the US, Republican and Democratic lawmakers have reached an agreement to allow for the sale of spectrum to speed up the introduction of next-generation 5G wireless networks, congressional leaders said on Friday.
In addition, US Federal Communications Commission chairman Ajit Pai on Monday said the regulator plans new auctions of high-band spectrum starting later this year for 5G networks to improve internet services across the United States.
For network equipment makers, such as Ericsson and Nokia, which are struggling with declining sales for 4G gear, the rollout cannot come soon enough.
But in Europe, deployments will start slowly in 2020 with widescale moves not likely until 2025, while many emerging markets are still struggling to catch up on fixed broadband and 3G data services.
The new networks also come at a price.
Expanding 5G could mean capital expenditure rising to 16 to 17 percent of revenues generated by the mobile industry from 2020, up from 15 percent now, said Mats Granryd, director general of the global trade body GSMA.
GSMA, which represents nearly 800 operators and some 300 suppliers, forecasts capital expenditure (CapEx) on mobile networks worldwide would be 500 billion US dollars over the three years between 2018 and 2020. To find the extra cash for the 5G rollout, operators are looking to shut down 2G and 3G networks to reduce the costs of running multiple networks and to free up spectrum for 5G.
(CGTN)
