(New Year Special) Changing regional security to challenge S. Korea's diplomacy in 2016

Yonhapnews

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South Korea is expected to face a slew of diplomatic and security challenges in 2016 with North Korea increasingly defiant.

Regional security conditions will remain volatile as well amid a U.S.-China standoff on some issues and a strain in ties between Pyongyang and Beijing.

In 2015, the U.S. and China were at odds with each other over Beijing's territorial claims in the South China Sea, presenting a major diplomatic challenge to South Korea.

South Korea-Japan relations remained chilly despite some positive developments, including the first summit talks between President Park Geun-hye and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

It slowed Washington's push for closer trilateral military cooperation to counter the North's threats.

The unpredictability of the North's Kim Jong-un regime is also a key challenge.

The South's Defense Ministry said last week North Korea may continue to launch military provocations next year, including a new nuclear detonation test and submarine-launched ballistic missile firing.

Joint military exercises between South Korea and the U.S. scheduled in March and August could become a catalyst for Pyongyang's military provocations although the communist country is largely expected to be more aggressive in the second half of 2016 rather than in the first half, experts said.

"It will be more perilous in the latter half as the country is likely to focus on the ruling party congress in May," National Defense University professor Lee Seok-soo said, referring to the seventh congress of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea where Kim may announce key internal policy achievements.

But, a deepening U.S.-China rivalry and a wedge in the traditionally sturdy Pyongyang-Beijing relations have the potential to get in the way of South Korea's crucial tasks to contain and denuclearize North Korea.

During this passing year, conflicts between the two superpowers posed a diplomatic headache for South Korea whose economic and security policy success requires full backing from both of the countries.

South Korea is bracing for another year of U.S.-China tensions to wade through at a time when it needs close collaboration with them both for the denuclearization of North Korea.

"We should no longer be dependent on the relationship between superpowers, but open up the future for our own," Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se remarked recently, alluding to further deterioration of bilateral ties to come.

Worse still, the now-dormant issue of the U.S. deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system in South Korea could yet deal another blow to U.S.-China ties.

South Korea-U.S. negotiations over the THAAD deployment appear set to begin in 2016 after the U.S. reportedly completes its research on about four candidate locations to host the defense system.

Such moves are sure to engender angry reactions from China which accused the U.S. of placing the missile defense system with the hidden motive to contain China.

Experts advised South Korea to manage the shifting regional landscape carefully with its priority put on improving inter-Korean relations.

"The diplomatic environment could become even more difficult for us next year due to the U.S.-China conflict over the South China Sea and the China-Taiwan relations," said Moon Chung-in, a political science professor at Yonsei University.

"Improvement in inter-Korean relations should come first in order to overcome the situation like this wisely," Moon said.

"The priority should be placed upon the resolution of the South-North Korean ties and the North Korean nuclear issue while efforts to take care of the South Korea-U.S. and South Korea-China relations continue."

As exposed in the North's all-girl band Moranbong's abrupt cancellation of concerts in Beijing earlier this month, an increasingly visible rift between the traditional communist allies also requires careful diplomacy from South Korea.

A solid Pyongyang-Beijing relationship used to provide China with leverage to bring North Korea to the negotiating table under the six-party denuclearization talks also involving South Korea, the U.S., Japan and Russia. It has also been effective in discouraging North Korea from launching military provocations.