After Brussels, leaders tackling threat of nuclear terrorism

StillreelingfromattacksinBrusselsandParis,worldleadersarewrestlingthisweekwiththechillingprospectoftheIslamicStategrouporotherextremistsunleashinganuclearattackonamajorWesterncity.

PreventingterroristsfromobtainingnuclearmaterialsisthecentralfocusasPresidentBarackObamahostsleadersfromroughly50countriesforanuclearsecuritysummitstartingThursday.DespitethreeprevioussummitsandsixyearsofObama'sprodding,securityofficialswarnthattheingredientsforanucleardeviceora"dirtybomb"arealarminglyinsecure.

"Weknowthatterroristorganizationshavethedesiretogetaccesstotheserawmaterialsandtohaveanucleardevice,"saidBenRhodes,Obama'sdeputynationalsecurityadviser.Still,theWhiteHousesaidtherewasnoindicationofanimminentplot.

DecadesaftertheColdWar,thethreatofanuclearwarbetweensuperpowershasgivenwaytogrowingconcernsaboutnon-stateactors,includingIslamicStateandal-QaidaoffshootsoperatinginNorthAfricaandinYemenandSaudiArabia.AlthoughtheUSanditsalliesstillworryaboutNorthKorea,ObamabelievesthethreatposedbyIranhassubsidedduetothenucleardeal,leavingextremistgroupsamongthelikeliestperpetrators.

ThehavocsuchanattackcouldwreakinanurbanarealikeNewYorkorLondonisconcerningenoughthatleadersscheduledaspecialsessiononthethreatduringthetwo-daysummit.USofficialssaidtheleaderswoulddiscussahypotheticalscenarioaboutachainofeventsthatcouldleadtonuclearterrorism.

ThoseconcernshavetakenonheightenedsignificantfollowingtheMarch22attacksataBrusselsairportandsubwaystation.Lastyear,authoritiessearchingtheapartmentoftwobrotherslinkedtoearlierattacksinParisfoundvideoofaseniorofficialataBelgiannuclearwastefacility.ThebrotherswerepartoftheIslamicStatecellthatwentontostrikeBrussels;bothdiedintheattacks.

Onthesummit'ssidelines,ObamaplannedtomeetwiththeleadersofChina,SouthKoreaandJapan,whoallshareUSconcernsaboutNorthKorea'snuclearprogram.

Yetotherkeyplayerswillbemissing.RussianPresidentVladimirPutinrefusedtoattend,asMoscowscoffedatwhatitdeemedUSeffortstotakecontroloftheprocess.PakistaniPrimeMinisterNawazSharifcanceledhistripfollowinganEasterbombingthatkilled72people.

Some2,000metrictonsofhighlyenricheduraniumandseparatedplutoniumbeingusedincivilianormilitaryprogramscouldbeturnedintoanuclearbombifstolenordiverted,theWhiteHousesaid.Andfewerthanhalfofthecountriesparticipatinginthesummithaveevenagreedtosecuretheirsourcesofradiologicalmaterial,neededforadirtybomb.

"Thepoliciesaremovingintherightdirection,"saidJoeCirincione,whorunsthenuclearsecuritygroupPloughsharesFund."Butwhenyou'refleeingaforestfire,it'snotjustaquestionofdirection,it'saquestionofspeed."

Nuclearsecurityexpertssaytherearefourpotentialscenariosforanuclear-relatedattackbyanextremistgroup.Somearemorelikelythanothers.

Themostdevastatingbutimprobablescenarioinvolvesagroupstealingafullyfunctionalbombfromanuclear-armedcountry.MostnuclearexpertspointtoPakistanasthelikeliestsource,thoughthatwouldrequirecooperationwithsomeoneontheinsideofPakistan'smilitary.

EasiertopulloffwouldbeforISoranothergrouptoobtainfissilemateriallikehighlyenricheduranium,thenturnitintoacrudenucleardevicedeliveredbytruckorship.Athirdpossibilityisthatextremistscouldbombanexistingnuclearfacility,suchastheBelgianwasteplant,spreadinghighlyradioactivematerialoverawidearea.

Themostlikelyscenariothatsecurityexpertsfearisthatagroupcouldgetaholdofradioactivematerial,suchascesiumorcobalt,foradirtybombthatcouldbecarriedinasuitcase.Thosematerialsarewidelyusedinindustrial,academicandhospitalsettings,withnoconsistentsecuritystandardsacrosstheglobe.Lastyear,anAssociatedPressinvestigationrevealedmultipleattemptsbyblackmarketsmugglerstosellradioactivematerialtoMiddleEastextremists.

Unlikeanuclearbomb,theonlypeoplekilledinstantlybya"dirtybomb"wouldbethoseclosetotheblastsite.Buttheblastcouldspreadcancer-causingsubstancesoveravastarea,triggeringpanicandevacuations.

"Evenifitissmall,suchanincidentwouldcreatesuchhavocintheworldthatyouhavetotakeitquiteseriously,"saidformerAmbassadorWendySherman,whospearheadedUSnuclearnegotiationswithIranandNorthKoreabeforejoiningtheAlbrightStonebridgeGroup.

Detonatedinamajorcity,adirtybombcouldcausetensofbillionsofdollarsineconomicdamage,saidAndrewBieniawski,whostudiesmaterialssecurityattheNuclearThreatInitiative.Peopleandbusinesseswouldhavetoberelocated—potentiallyforyears—whilethecontaminationiscleanedup.Fewwouldbeinclinedtoevergoback,arealityondisplayinChernobyl,Ukrainedecadesafterthe1986accident.

ReducingthethreatofnuclearterrorismhasbeenapersistentthemeforObama,whowontheNobelPeacePrizeafteremphasizingnucleardisarmament.Fourmonthsintohispresidency,Obamawarnedinamuch-citedspeechinPraguethatnuclearweaponswere"themostdangerouslegacyoftheColdWar."

(THEJAKARTAPOST)