New study unpacks link between climate change-induced food scarcity

New research suggests that the strength of a country's government plays a vital role in preventing violence at a time when climate change is expected to lead to more violence related to food scarcity.

"We've already started to see climate change as an issue that won't just put the coasts under water, but as something that could cause food riots in some parts of the world," said Bear Braumoeller, co-author of a study published in the Journal of Peace Research and associate professor of political science at the Ohio State University.

Knowing that "climate-induced food scarcity is going to become an increasingly big issue," Braumoeller conducted the study, titled "Food scarcity and state vulnerability: Unpacking the link between climate variability and violent unrest," with his former doctoral students Benjamin Jones, now at the University of Mississippi, and Eleonora Mattiacci, now at Amherst College.

As extreme weather such as droughts and floods could hurt agricultural production in some countries, leading to violence there or elsewhere by people who are desperate for food, the researchers estimated the effects of food insecurity and state vulnerability on the occurrence of violent uprisings in Africa for the years 1991 to 2011, and used a variety of measurements for both food shocks that lead to violence and to gauge the vulnerability of countries.

For the climate-related causes of food shocks, the researchers analyzed rainfall, temperature and the international prices of food, including sudden increases in prices.

"We recognized that countries that imported food could be impacted by climate shocks in other parts of the world that suddenly increased prices, even if they weren't experiencing any significant weather impacts themselves," Braumoeller said.

When examining countries' vulnerabilities, the researchers analyzed a host of factors including a country's dependence on agricultural production, its imports, the strength of its political institutions and its wealth.

"We found that the most vulnerable countries are those that have weak political institutions, are relatively poor and rely more on agriculture," he was quoted as saying in a news release from the Ohio State University this week.

"We find that these effects are interactive, with state vulnerability moderating the impact of food insecurity on the likelihood of violence. We also find that capable governance is an even better guarantor of peace than good weather," the authors wrote in their paper.

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)