U.S. Supreme Court vacancy may help Democrats in November

The passing of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the power vacuum it left on the court is set to become one of the most historic political fights in modern history, though it was not unforeseen.

Ginsburg was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in 2009, a particularly bleak diagnosis that came well into advanced age. The fact that an 87-year-old dying from natural causes can cause such a political uproar is a marvel of the American political system, and that it comes mere weeks before an election adds another layer to this uniquely American theater.

When Justice Antonin Scalia passed in 2016, Republicans in the Senate, led by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, blocked Judge Merrick Garland's nomination to the court by then President Barack Obama. Republicans made the case that, because it was an election year and Obama was on his way out, voters should make the call on how the vacancy is filled. This time around Republicans are moving quickly to fill Ginsburg's bench – a lifetime appointment – despite the obvious hypocrisy that it entails.

"A basic principle of the law – and of everyday fairness – is that we apply rules with consistency, and not based on what's convenient or advantageous at the moment. The rule of law, the legitimacy of our courts, the fundamental workings of our democracy all depend on that basic principle. As votes are already being cast in this election, Republican senators are now called to apply that standard," Obama said in a statement in response to the hypocrisy from Republicans.

We see here the interesting dynamic of American politics – the insurgency of the Republican Party in ruthlessly asserting its ideology juxtaposed with the Democratic Party's faith in procedure in the political process and respecting precedent. It can be rightfully argued that the Democrat's principled stance on maintaining public institutions and political decorum has yielded no positive results for society, whereas the ideological passion of the Republican program has succeeded in its objective to dismantle it.

The looming election, however, has created a serious problem for Republicans' abandon. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll from September 20, most Americans adults – 62 percent, which includes half of Republicans and a majority of Democrats – believe the vacancy ought to be filled by the winner of November's presidential election.

This is a bit significant because several vulnerable Republicans' reelection bids hinge on the eventual fate of the Court, which puts McConnell's Senate majority at risk. However, national polls would not be exactly the same as the state polls.

For example, Maine Senator Susan Collins has said that she will not support her party's push to fill Ginsburg's vacancy. Her decision is no doubt motivated by polling in Maine, where she is facing a tough reelection, as the majority of voters in her state may prefer the next president be Joe Biden. Although if she loses her own Senate seat, it may not influence her party's Senate overall majority, as which way the seats in another seven states will lean is too early to tell.

Screenshot shows current U.S. Senator of Maine Susan Collin's Twitter statement on the Supreme Court vacancy.

Utah Senator Mitt Romney, who has long criticized Trump's abandonment of political normalcy, signaled on September 22 that he would support a Trump nominee based on qualifications, likely setting the stage for another Trump Supreme Court appointee and sealing the Court away from Democrats for a generation.

The political cost for this bench is already being levied against Republicans. Pushing forward this vote will threaten their Senate majority and it has made the urgency of Democrats to elect Joe Biden, which will compensate for one of his campaign's biggest problems – enthusiasm.

There is a fear that disillusioned progressives will sit out this race because of Joe Biden's lack of a progressive vision. Democrats are notorious for their low turnout; studies have suggested in the past that things as simple as weather can affect voter turnout, with Democrats less likely to vote in poor weather conditions – enthusiasm is perhaps the most important factor for their electoral success, however.

The prospect of a conservative-dominated Supreme Court has long been the argument Democrats use to drag their progressive bedfellows to the polls. Some stakes are just too high, they argue, and staying home would be irresponsible.

There is no doubt that the stakes were already high – approximately 200,000 American lives have lost to COVID-19 pandemic – but they are now higher. Keeping a Trump nominee off the bench means his specter will have less of a haunting effect into the future.

Incidentally, some key figures already reflect this surge in enthusiasm. Democratic donors funneled over 90 million U.S. dollars to candidates and progressive groups in just 28 hours after Ginsburg's passing, according to online fundraising organization ActBlue, which only adds to the funding Democrats are securing for a final gut punch against Trump and Republicans ahead of Election Day.

A growing number of Americans are totally disillusioned with the political system, and their day-to-day experiences that create this attitude cannot be denied. However, a majority of voters still have faith in the political process – they still believe in the constitution, political processes and the peaceful transition of power.

Much of this support is nostalgia and many voters especially during this time of crisis and unprecedented mismanagement, yearn to return to more stable times.

(CGTN)