China is poised to overtake U.S. to be No. 1 film market

The Chinese film market looks to surpass North America this year due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on ticket sales and helped in part by the war epic The Eight Hundred, which recently became the No. 1 highest-grossing film of 2020.

Directed by Guan Hu, The Eight Hundred had as of Sunday taken in 3.02 billion yuan ($443 million) in China alone, plus more than $331,000 from North America on limited release, according to Chinese box office tracker Lighthouse. It has officially surpassed American film Bad Boys for Life which grossed $424.62 million worldwide and was the previous global leader for the year, Box Office Mojo's figures show.

The Eight Hundred is also currently the 10th highest-grossing film of all time in China, and looks to continue to climb. With this success, the film's director Guan has become China's most successful director in terms of takings. In his 28-year career, Guan's films as actor, director, co-director, or producer have so far amassed 7.37 billion yuan in total.

The phenomenal success of The Eight Hundred has prompted observers to consider that China could eventually overtake North America to become the number one film market in the world this year. If achieved, the accolade would fulfill a dream shared among many Chinese filmmakers.

According to comScore's statistics, from Jan. 1 - Sept. 22, the North American box office generated $2.04 billion while China sits in second place with $1.02 billion. But as Hollywood continues to postpone the release of big productions such as Black Widow and West Side Story to next year due to the pandemic continuing to hobble the U.S. and other markets, the box office gap could be narrowed before 2020 is out.

The sudden COVID-19 outbreak halted the Chinese film industry and global markets for months but thanks to China's effective control of the pandemic, theaters were able to reopen in late July. As of this week, Chinese theaters have raised their seating capacity to 75%, up from 50%, hopefully spurring further recovery of the world's second-largest box-office market.

China's eight-day Golden Week National Day holiday is looming and with it comes a slew of box office releases that could see a climax in gross box office earnings in October. Those include sport blockbuster Leap, Jackie Chan action movie Vanguard, the animated Legend of Deification that revolves around mythological figure Jiang Ziya, and Chinese comedy anthology feature My People, My Homeland starring an all-star cast and directed by seven big-name directors. Finally, Guan Hu's latest war epic Jin Gang Chuan is also set for release on Oct. 25.

While analysts predict that China will outpace America in the remaining quarter of 2020, there are several major American titles still billed to come out. The biggest include the latest James Bond film, No Time To Die, and Wonder Woman 1984. However, if the pandemic is not under control by November or December, these titles could either perform poorly or also be moved to the next year.

But at the same time, China may also release these Hollywood titles in its own market, on top of several potentially big local productions set for the Christmas period, including Shock Wave 2 and A Little Red Flowe.