What will Abe's re-election mean for Sino-Japanese relations?

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sealed a landslide victory in a snap parliamentary election on October 22. With a two-thirds supermajority in the Diet, the parliament, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is able to hold on to office for a third term, on track to become Japan's most influential and longest-serving leader since the end of World War II.

Abe's snap election

Scandals have dragged Abe's government's popularity close to what political observers describe as "death zone" levels in recent months.

Abe dissolved the parliament on September 28, and called an election a year early. His decision comes amid rebounding approval ratings as rising tensions with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) have overshadowed criticism of alleged cronyism.

Analysts see the early vote as his way to seize the resurgent support and exploit the current weakness of the opposition. The realigned opposition camp was left weakened after failing to create a formidable political force under Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike's Party of Hope.

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike delivers her speech during an inauguration press conference on her new political party 'Party of Hope,' in Tokyo, Sept. 27, 2017. /AFP Photo

Through this election, Abe is in the position to become Japan's longest-serving prime minister. He may remain in office until 2021 if he is re-elected as the LDP president in autumn next year. The party had changed its rules earlier this year to allow one person to stay in office for three terms instead of two.

Sino-Japanese relations under a third term of Abe

The Chinese foreign ministry said the day after Abe's winning that it hoped that Abe will take practical actions to promote stability and improvement of bilateral relations. "We hope Japan will continue to be on a path of peaceful development to play a constructive role in regional peace and stability," said ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang.

Liang Yunxiang, a professor in Japan studies at Peking University, said there will not be much change in Sino-Japanese relations in the short term. He said China and Japan have shaped a structural relationship, which won't be easily changed by a person or a party.

Sino-Japanese relations have gone through ups and downs over the decades. The ties slipped into the lowest point since the nations agreed to establish diplomatic ties in the early 1970s, when then Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda tacitly authorized the audacious proposal to "purchase" and "nationalize" the Diaoyu Islands in 2012.

This file photo taken on a marine surveillance plane shows the Diaoyu Islands and nearby islands.

Both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Abe have signaled willingness to stabilize ties since then, with several one-on-one meetings.

In 2014, the two countries reached a four-point agreement to improve bilateral ties, according to which they agreed to resume political, diplomatic and security dialogue while acknowledging different positions on the Diaoyu Islands.

Complex problems remain

Still, some analysts say complex problems remain between the two nations.

The territorial dispute in the East China Sea has weighed heavy on Sino-Japanese relations. China has repeatedly called on Japan to stop making incorrect remarks or practicing wrong deeds in regard to the Diaoyu Islands.

Liang said China and Japan have common interests and also structural contradictions, for example, distrust in the field of political security. The structural contradictions remain even as both sides are working on improving relations.

Giulio Pugliese, a lecturer in war studies at King’s College London and co-author of a book on Sino-Japanese politics, said, "What we are and will be witnessing is a quieter standoff."

A combination of competition and cooperation

Ivan Tselichtchev, a professor at the Niigata University of Management in Japan, said, Sino-Japanese relations "will still largely be a combination of competition and cooperation," as the two countries are growing more interdependent economically.

China is Japan's biggest trading partner, while Japan is China’s second-largest. Japanese economy largely relies on China' growth to keep on track as China provides enormous markets and investment opportunities. Japan has welcomed about 5 million Chinese visitors so far this year, more than from any other country, and the number continues to grow.

Chinese tourists with shopping bags wait for a sightseeing bus in front of a discount electronics store in Tokyo's Ginza district. /China Daily Photo

"They need each other economically,” said Jiang Yuechun, a senior research fellow with China Institute of International Studies in Beijing. "Economic cooperation acts as the ballast of this relationship, and that is the reason why the Sino-Japanese relationship can't be burned."

It is also in both countries' interest to boost Asian economic integration, such as the creation of a mega free trade area, and especially as US trade policy becomes more protectionist, Tselichtchev said.

Chinese Ambassador to Japan Cheng Yonghua said there was "a tendency to gradually improve the overall trend" of Sino-Japanese ties despite complexities in the relationship. He noted that China and Japan have strengthened cooperation in trade, investment and finance after Abe recognized the importance of the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative. Cheng sees the Initiative as a new platform for mutually-beneficial cooperation and common development.

(CGTN)