News Analysis: Year of the Snake augurs well for China-Australia economic tie

text

Perhaps more than any other global economy, Australia, a mineral-rich country, is keeping an eagle's eye on developments in China and the its expected economic rebound in the Year of the Snake.

As urbanization continues to drive its infrastructure investment, China consumes about half of the world's production of iron ore, coking coal and thermal coal, resources that Australia can supply in abundance.

The phenomenal growth in China has seen the price of Australia' s commodity exports rise to unprecedented levels until last year when the price of iron ore plummeted.

Despite this hiccup, Australia's terms of trade the price of exports relative to the price of imports started rising rapidly from the mid 2000s to a new peak in late 2011.

According to Doug Ferguson, KPMG's Partner in Charge, China Business Practice-Asia Business Group, that storm has passed.

"We believe that China's economy that has bottomed out in the third quarter has now stabilized and is showing a positive trend and on target to achieve an 8 percent GDP growth in 2013," Ferguson said.

According to Ferguson, China's macroeconomic fundamentals are encouraging, with urbanization rate at 52 percent, net trade figures steadily improving, PMI index improvement and inflation appearing under control.

Ferguson, a veteran China watcher and a key player in the forging of Chinese and Australian business partnerships, told Xinhua that China's structural shift towards domestic consumption is underwriting the country's long-term repositioning in the global economy.

"The prospects for further growth in China's service sector and growth of the private sector are most exciting," Ferguson said.

Ferguson added that with China's accumulated foreign reserves and central policy implementation, "we are provided with a strong safeguard against major economic risks."

Ferguson also cited tourism in Australia as a core beneficiary of Chinese growth.

"The Australian tourism market is now benefitting hugely from the 700,000 Chinese tourists who have visited our country and we are seeing healthy increases in Chinese students and migrants coming to Australia," Ferguson said.

Certainly the stars appear to be aligning early on in the Year of the Snake assuring China's stellar role in the world economy.

According to Annette Beacher, head of Asia-Pacific Research at TD Securities, the Chinese government's realignment to domestic consumption and continued commitment to urbanization are reasons enough for China's sustained economic growth.

"Not only did 2012 close on a strong note, January business surveys hinted at a similar 7.75 percent GDP growth in early 2013," Beacher said.

The NSW government, managing the key economy, with Sydney as its capital, is extremely positive about China's economic trajectory and considers the ongoing relationship with China a major priority for the state.

Deputy Premier and Minister for Trade Andrew Stoner told Xinhua that NSW has an ongoing engagement with key Chinese markets, including the establishment of sister states and the signing of Memorandums of Understanding (MOU) and other trade accords.

Stoner said that the NSW government has set up Trade & Investment offices in Guangzhou and Shanghai to further strengthen economic ties between Sydney and the key commercial centers in China.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its update to the World Economic Outlook (WEO), the Chinese economy will grow by 8.2 percent this year and 8.5 percent next year.

Stoner said that considering the IMF has predicted a global economic growth of only 3.5 percent this year and 4.1 percent next year, China "indeed is enjoying a very solid growth."

China is already NSW's biggest two-way trading partner and Stoner sees enormous potential for bilateral trade in the future.

"The Chinese government's management of its economy, including its current five-year plan to encourage domestic consumption, develop its services sector and shift to higher value- added manufacturing all bode well for China's financial future," Stoner said.

After 40 years of diplomatic ties, the two countries now enjoy a bilateral trade exceeding 120 billion Australian dollars per year.

While Australia remains a stable and reliable supplier for high- quality, high-volume natural resources, such as iron ore, copper, coal, gas which are needed as China's urbanization trend continues, KPMG sees a new generation of trade ties unfolding in 2013.

"The opportunities for Australia to supply safe, high quality food and agricultural resources (dairy, meat, grains, wine, cotton, wool) are plentiful," Ferguson noted.

"Australia consumes only 40-50 percent of its agricultural produce and should make every effort to ensure that we will be the preferred supplier of food items for China in the long term,"he added.

Stoner said the NSW has strategies in place that can complement China's growth plans.

"Our professional services sector, led by financial and insurance services, our ICT and digital industries, our world leading research and development sectors, education services and our expertise in energy, resources and agribusiness all have much to offer Chinese industry and business," Stoner said.