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By APD writer Wu Jian
Translated by Douglas
The Trump administration's messaging around Syria has only gotten more confusing in recent days. President Donald Trump has spoken: He wants U.S. troops out of Syria by the fall. But don’t call it a “timeline.”
Trump, taking questions from reporters Tuesday in a joint White House press conference with the leaders of the Baltic States, reiterated his intent to pull U.S. forces out of Syria.
At a rally in Ohio state earlier, he gloated about “knocking the hell out of ISIS” and added that “we'll be coming out of Syria, like, very soon. Last week, his administration reportedly froze about 200 million U.S. dollars in recovery funds earmarked for Syria, saying the administration will reassess the role of the country in the Syrian conflict.
Trump reiterated his intent to pull U.S. forces out of Syria
Trump's statements on Syria exit surprised the outside world. Since Trump took office, his administration not only for the first time launched a military strike against the Syrian government, but also sent as many as 1,000 U.S. soldiers to the north of Syria.
Compared with his predecessor Obama, Trump’s Syrian policy has clearly become tougher. Trump’s calls to leave Syria comes just months after Trump agreed to the strategy , which consisted of a long-term plan to defeat ISIS and remain active through the ongoing diplomatic push to bring an end to the Syrian conflict.
Trump’s seemingly sudden policy shift on the Syria is in fact inseparable from the background factors such as the early layout for the mid-term elections, the current ambivalence of the United States in Syria, and the adjustment of foreign policy priorities.
Firstly, it is widely known that his "America First" policy is Trump's iconic governing vision. The elimination of "Islamic State" is among his main campaign promises. There are reports that Trump has hinted to his advisers that he hopes to withdraw all U.S. troops stationed in Syria before the mid-term elections. Trump is likely to learn from Russian President Vladimir Putin to play the "withdrawal card" before the election so as to achieve his campaign promise and win more votes.
Secondly, the current U.S. situation out there is embarrassed. On the one hand, the Turkish army is not satisfied after fully occupying the Kurdish-held Afrin, and has approached the U.S. strategic location Manbij, a city at the westernmost point of the Syrian territory held by the U.S.-supported Kurds. If the Kurdish forces do not withdraw from Manbij, the United States and Turkey are on a collision course in northern Syria.
On the other hand, Syrian government has completely recaptured the rebel-held Eastern Ghouta enclave with the Russian military’s air strike support. This military victory also means that the Syrian government has regained control of most parts of the country. With Russia’s strong military involvement, the U.S.’s influence in Syria has been further weakened.
Thirdly, the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue is the most pressing diplomatic priority facing Trump administration since he took office, but recently the DPRK has extended its willingness to hold peace talks with the United States and Trump agreed to meet with DPRK top leader Kim Jong-un before May. Trump’s proposal of withdrawal from Syria also signaled the adjustment of the focus of U.S. foreign policy and that his administration will go all out to address the nuclear issue in the coming months.
However, Trump’s intention to withdraw from Syria will surely be hampered by his national security team and Middle East allies. Pentagon officials stressed that no formal order had been handed down to the military to alter course or start a withdrawal, and even the Pentagon is reportedly considering a small increase in its troops in the conflict-torn country. Unlike Trump, its national security team is more concerned about the geopolitical security and interests of the United States in the region.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has stated that he wants the US to maintain its military presence in Syria. “We believe American troops should stay for at least the mid-term, if not the long-term.”
Bin Salman remarked that without U.S. presence, Iran would gain a greater foothold in the region.
If the U.S. military really withdraws, it will undoubtedly have a major impact on the situation in Syria.
Along with the battle against the Islamic State, the United States is locked in a struggle for influence in the region with Iran and Russia, which have openly backed the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The U.S. withdrawal will hand over the discourse power of Syria’s future political arrangements to the three countries of Russia, Turkey, and Iran, and at the same time it symbolizes that Russia’s presence in the Middle East has further improved.
Leaders of Turkey, Russia and Iran met in Ankara in the latest round of talks over Syria's future
On Wednesday, the leaders of Turkey, Russia and Iran has met in Ankara in the latest round of talks over Syria's future. In the face of the withdrawal of the U.S. forces and the favorable situation on the Syrian battlefield, the consensus reached by the Russia-Turkey-Iran Summit on a political solution to the Syrian issue seems to demonstrate solidarity with each other.
What needs to be pointed out, however, is Turkey’s commitment to the establishment of a safe zone near its border with Syria, should be coordinated with Iran’s position to maintain Syria’s unity and territorial integrity, as well as Russia’s defense of its strategic fulcrum in the Middle East and its impact on its relations with the United States.
Wu Jian, Research Fellow at Asia Pacific Institute, is the chef editor of News Network in China Radio International.
(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)
