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"It's the economy, stupid," someone always says around election time. But in Spain it'd probably be more accurate to say: "it's the ideology and the complex socio-political and economic panorama… stupid."
Spain goes to the ballot box on Sunday July 23 to decide their government for the next four years, with a stark choice between a left and right bloc. The Vox party is on course to help form a right-wing coalition as a junior partner, putting the far-right in power for the first time since 1975.
Parties campaigned furiously up to the end of the deadline on Friday night, and while the polls put the right and far-right ahead, the left has mobilized their base and the result could be a lot closer than expected.
Spain chooses: Right or left
Sitting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, leader of the center-left PSOE party will need help from the left political umbrella group Sumar which includes the party Podemos. A right-wing coalition would be formed with front-runner for prime minister Alberto Nunez Feijoo - leader of the Popular Party and far-right Vox.
Sanchez points to a sound economy, the lowest inflation rate in Europe, and historically low unemployment as his achievements, but the right says unemployment numbers are lies and people are worse off than ever.
Some critics even accuse Sanchez of being a traitor for being 'soft' on Catalan separatists and for negotiating in parliament with Basque party Bildu - ETA, a party some right wingers accuse of being terrorists.
Progressive policies under threat
If the center and far-right do get into power as predicted, we could see dramatic changes in Spanish policy and society. Take the current government's green agenda for example: they want to put the concerns of the fishing, farming, and tourism industries ahead of climate action.
That's concerning in a country which is experiencing record temperatures, record wildfires, and reservoirs drying up. NASA recently warned that the Donana natural reserve is at risk of simply drying up and dying off, taking with it many protected and endangered species.
Progressive policies put in place by the left-wing government could also be reversed, including things like women's rights, abortion, gay and transgender rights, and we could see a return to tensions in Catalonia too.
Sanchez: 'The Socialist Party will win'
Predictions point to a victory for the right-wing bloc, but things might not be so clear-cut. The left had a good week and confidence is growing out of what the Spanish call a 'remontada' - a comeback from their woeful regional election results in May.
Sitting Spanish leader Pedro Sanchez talked to his supporters in a euphoric final rally on Friday night, saying: "I'm going to tell you what's going to happen and that is that the Socialist Party will win and the Popular Party will lose and Vox will lose. Progress will win and regression will lose. It's clear to see!"
Sanchez' speech echoed that of Popular Party leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo in his home region of Galicia.
"I just want to say that the next time we see each other, if we all go out to vote, I will come back and hug you as Spain's prime minister. Many thanks, long live La Coruna, long live Galicia and long live Spain!"
CGTN Europe spoke to PP supporters earlier in Madrid and one young fan with a flag said: "PP voters and many people around Spain expect a change, it has been five difficult years with a divided society so most Spanish people want a change and a new start, a different one."
Another local businessman said: "There must be a change, Spain hasn't done very well with Pedro Sanchez, because his associates are enemies of the country itself, separatist parties that want to divide Spain.
"If those are your allies then things are not going to work out."
**How to win an election in Spain **
To win, Sanchez or Feijoo, the PSOE or the PP, need to win at least 176 of the 350 seats in the Spanish congress. Neither is likely to win that, but the party who wins the most votes has the right to form a coalition government.
But that isn't as easy as it sounds. Complex negotiations, deal making, and political horse trading could take weeks or months and may even end in fresh elections. You only have to look back to the 2015 elections and see how no one managed to form a government and by 2019 when Sanchez won, it was the fourth election in four years.
That type of political instability could hurt Madrid's six-month role in the rotating presidency of the European Union and its spending of EU COVID recovery funds. An eventual government led by Feijoo and the PP could cause conflict in Europe too, which has the green transition at the heart of its agenda, we heard a lot of Brussels-bashing on the campaign trail from Vox.
Vox rallies the left
Vox has many Spaniards fearing a return to the past with what could potentially be the first far-right party in government since Franco. Their stance against a green agenda and women's rights has mobilized many on the left to vote to keep them out of power.
We've seen a lot of name-calling in this election already. The left-leaning media has been publishing photos of Feijoo holidaying with notorious Galician narcotrafficker Marcial Dorado who was sentenced to 14 years in prison for cocaine smuggling.
The center-right leader doesn't deny the relationship, but says he knew Dorado when he was just a tobacco contraband smuggler. On Sunday we'll know which vision has convinced the country in this extraordinary election held later in summer than ever before.
Over 2.5 million people will vote by mail - the most ever - as many are already on the beach on holidays.
(CGTN)
