Heated discussion over one-child changes

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KG

INTRO

After China announced its decision to relax the one-child policy, heated discussion and controversy have broken out across the country.

The new policy will allow couples to have two children if one of them is an only child.

Some demographers see the change as a step toward a more balanced population development.

But not all the parents who qualify for a second baby want one, because of the increasing cost of raising a child.

PKG

The one-child policy was introduced in the late 1970s to rein in the surging population by limiting most urban couples to one child.

The policy was later relaxed and if both parents were only children they could have a second child regardless.

The latest change comes as Chinese society ages and the growing burden of social pensions poses great challenges to society as a whole.

China's sixth national census in 2010 showed a fertility rate between 1.5 and 1.6, almost the same as some developed countries which are now plagued by ageing populations.

The country's peak population should be about 1.5 billion with a birthrate of around 1.8.

In addition, the labour force decreased by 3.45 million in 2012, the first absolute decrease, and is expected to decrease further by about 29 million by the end of the decade.

The elderly population meanwhile, continues to grow with those aged 60 and over numbering nearly 200 million, 14.3 percent of the total, much more than the international norm of 10 percent.

The figure is forecast to exceed one third of the population by 2050.

SOUNDBITE: ZHAI ZHENWU, Demographer, Renmin University of China

"Under the current circumstances, the adjusted birth policy will be positive for structural population problems such as the ageing issue, persistent imbalance of genders and a decrease of the working population. The new policy will also help keep the birth rate stable, preventing a sharp decline in population after it reaches its peak."

He said the new policy is not only in line with a long-term balanced development of the population in China, but also meets many people's expectations.

SOUNDBITE: Beijing citizen

"I was very excited when the new policy came out. And I'm considering having a second baby."

SOUNDBITE: Beijing citizen

"We will be very happy once the new policy is made effective. I'm willing to have a second child if I'm allowed to."

SOUNDBITE: MS ZHAO, Beijing citizen

"We knew how to share with others when we were children. But an only child in a family doesn't know how to share and is often lonely. It will be much better if they have siblings."

However, many parents who will be allowed to have a second child admit they would hesitate over whether to go ahead and have one.

SOUNDBITE: MR ZUO, Beijing citizen

"The reality is we don't have enough money to raise another child, as we are both working class. My wife has already quit her job to spend more time with our child. If we have another, there'd be no room it, plus we have no money and no more hands to raise it. So loosing the one-child policy doesn't make much difference to us."

Due to the decades old family planning policy, families which have only one child in rural areas are more common than in cities.

The new policy, therefore, is expected to have a bigger impact on families living in the city.

However, with the cost of raising a child in a city relatively high, some families are not expected to take advantage of the chnage in the law.

Mr Zuo said the new policy's intention is good, as it gives people the right to have a second baby.

But a baby boom in cities will bring huge societal pressure with it with regards to food security, health, education and employment.

SOUNDBITE: MR ZUO, Beijing citizen

"I don't want any more children. The problem is that there are not enough social resources. We could get to a stage where there aren't enough schools and hospitals for these extra babies."

The new policy is also seen by some as unfair.

They say everyone should be able to have a second child regardless of whether he or she is an only child or not.

TAG

Experts say the change of policy is of great importance and a practical step toward more balanced population development in China, but it is not the end of China's family planning policy.