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**By APD writer
Wu Jian**
Some significant developments have recently occurred in what has mutated into a proxy war in Syria, with regional powers like Turkey, Iran and Israel stepping onto the front stage.
On Feb. 10, Israel shot down what it said was an Iranian drone that had entered Israeli airspace from Syria. It then attacked the Iranian command center in Syria from which the drone was launched. One of Israel’s F-16 fighter jets was later downed by a Syrian anti-aircraft missile.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran and Syria should be held accountable for the fresh military clashes. Media analyses in the Middle East said violence on the Israeli-Syrian borders would herald a new chapter in the regional conflict and even become a watershed.
All this happened while Turkey’s air and ground operation, dubbed "Olive Branch" and launched on Jan. 20, to drive Kurdish YPG (People's Protection Units) militia out of Syria's northern city of Afrin shows no sign of abating. Ankara views the YPG as a terrorist group allying themselves with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been fighting for Kurdish independence from Turkey.
With Turkish troops’ offensive raging on and expanding in scope, analysts have warned that the ongoing military actions will have a profound impact on the geopolitics in the region and further complicate the situation of the Syrian civil war.
Israel's growing sense of insecurity
Israel has carried out multiple raids against targets inside Syria since the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011, each of them followed by condemnations and warnings from Damascus.
The downing of an Israeli warplane, Israel's large-scale airstrikes in Syria, and the alleged "penetration" by an Iranian drone into Israeli airspace from Syria – all of these recent incidents have indicated that Israel's military confrontations with Iran and Syria are escalating rapidly.
Iran's increasingly robust military presence in Syria under the excuse of fighting the Islamic State militant group has long been of grave concern to Israel. Meanwhile, the expansion of Hezbollah, a Lebanese militia that acts as an Iranian proxy, has added to Israel's anxiety over the deterioration of stability on its northern borders.
During a swift trip to Russia on Jan. 29, Netanyahu discussed with Russian President Vladimir Putin Iran's military posture in Syria as well as Tehran's plan to build precision-guided missile factories in Lebanon. Netanyahu said the Jewish state could no longer abide those moves by the Islamic Republic and would take actions.
Netanyahu's primary goal in Russia was to persuade Putin to use Moscow's leverage over Iran, but the Kremlin falling short of Israel's expectations in turn set a direct prelude to Israel's recent military mission against Iran in Syria.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
Netanyahu informed both Putin and U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson of his country's offensive in Syria targeting Iranian positions, calling on Russia to de-escalate the situation while receiving what a Pentagon spokesman said was Washington’s full support for Israel's right to self defense.
Israel's real intention appears to be fairly evident: showcasing its resolve and ability to safeguard security interests by force while adding pressure to the White House and the Kremlin. An unnamed Israeli military spokesman was quoted by Reuters news agency on Feb. 10 as saying Israel did not seek an escalation in the region.
"We are not looking to escalate the situation. This was a defensive effort triggered by an Iranian act of aggression and we are defending our airspace, our sovereignty and civilians," the spokesman said, according to the Reuters report.
Turkey's olive branch operation to face difficulties
Although Turkey has vowed to wrap up its cross-border sorties in Afrin as soon as possible and expand its military activities to the Turkish-Iraqi borders, progress on the ground so far has not been as smooth as Ankara had imagined. In contrast, the development on the battlefield has shown a looming possibility of Turkish troops encountering more challenges.
One of the challenges that Turkey will face is a direct confrontation with U.S. troops. There have been allegations that the United States will provide intelligence and technical assistance to Kurdish militants, and rumors have it that U.S. special forces will directly take part in the fight. In addition, U.S. troops are sheltering the Kurds by refusing to retreat from Manbij, a strategically important city in northern Syria where the United States has a military base.
On the other hand, there is also a risk that Turkey will drag itself into conflict, albeit indirect, with Russia and Iran. Given that the trio are now collaborating in the search for a political solution to the Syrian crisis, Moscow and Tehran have kept a blind eye to what is happening in Afrin, but such acquiescence is only under the condition that the operation does not weaken the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad.
Observers seemed to have been caught completely off guard when media reports purported that the U.S.-backed YPG was covertly aided by the pro-government forces in Syria. While the two fight each other elsewhere, they face a common enemy and have a mutual interest in blocking Turkish advances in Afrin. It is not yet clear whether such cooperation will bring uncertainty to the aforementioned three-party mechanism for resolving the Syrian conflicts.
Ultimately, Turkey will probably make a decent end to the Olive Branch operation following some sort of U.S. commitment to the Kurds.
Great power politics keeps peace distant
In a short-term perspective, current military maneuvers by Turkey, Iran and Israel are still likely to be under control and will hardly stir up a new round of chaos in Syria.
In the long term, though, these drastic changes have sent out some very dangerous signals. In the space of a single week, al-Qaida-affiliated rebels shot down a Russian jet, Kurdish fighters downed a Turkish helicopter, Israel intercepted an Iranian drone, and Syrian government forces destroyed an Israeli F-16. These dizzying shellings have reflected the stubbornness of the miscellaneous factions combating in Syria, each having a proxy that props them up from behind. The chaotic events have also illustrated that the various parties have gradually acquired more sophisticated military equipment.
Global and regional powers have been vying for spheres of influence in the Middle East since the defeat of the Islamic State, exacerbating the ripple effect of the Syrian crisis that has already continued into a seventh year. The fiercer the fight among those powers, the higher the risk of escalation of situation in the region.
It cannot be ruled out that countries in the region will resort to brinkmanship once they see their core security interests being challenged. Whereas, these are by no means good signs for peace in Syria.
Wu Jian, Research Fellow at Asia Pacific Institute, is the chef editor of News Network in China Radio International.
(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)
