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The Hong Kong government released the First Quarter Economic Report 2013 on Friday. The territory sees a 2.8 percent year-on-year and 0.2 percent quarter-to-quarter real GDP growth.
One of the key momentums is export. Total merchandize exports grew 8.8 percent year-on-year in the first quarter. The Chinese mainland and some other Asian markets saw solid growth at 8.5 percent and 3.8 percent respectively. But the advanced economies remain the weak sports, with exports to the U.S., EU and Japan are posting declines of 5.0 percent, 5.4 percent and 4.9 percent respectively.
Exports of services also picked up to a 4.9 percent year-on year growth. This is mainly supported by vibrant inbound tourism, booming 15.3 percent compared to the same period last year, whilst financial and business services and trade related services were up by 3.2 percent and 2.7 percent year-on-year respectively.
Another driving force of local economic expansion comes from domestic demand. Private consumption expenditure grew briskly by seven percent over a year earlier, on the back of supportive labor market conditions in the first quarter.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment edged up to 3.5 percent, which is still a low level. Median household income rose by 5.8 percent nominally, two percent in real term, after discounting inflation. Average employment earnings for the lowest deciles of full-time employees leap by 7.7 percent in nominal terms, or by 3.4 percent in real terms.
Investment expenditure, however, fell back by 2.2 percent.
Helen Chen, government economist of the territory’s government, added that the government’s poverty alleviation measures are also important incentives to encourage private consumption.
The statutory minimum wage hiked from 28 Hong Kong dollars to 30 on May 1. Before the effective date, Chan said that the Minimum Wage Commission of the city had made a series of careful assessment.
“The Commission drew a conclusion that this new policy would slightly affect the unemployment rate by 0.1 to 0.3 percent. But we believe the stable economic outlook during this period can offset the negative effects, said Chan, “The job vacancy rate has been very high since last year.
Consumer price inflation held steady in 2013’s first quarter. Locally, wages have tapered in growth, while the pick-up in fresh-letting rentals during 2012 had yet to fully feed through to the inflation figures.
However, imported inflation stay moderate amid soft global food and commodity prices.
“Since Japan is quite a big importing market of us, accounting for about 11 percent of our total imports, Yen appreciation would certainly benefit. Also, the global commodity prices remain low, leading to a low headline consumer price inflation of 3.7 percent in the first quarter of this year, Chan said.
Looking forward, Chan said the government's forecast of GDP growth for this year is 1.5-3.5 percent, as announced in the Fiscal Budget in February this year.
"This wide range of estimation stems from the lurking uncertainties in global finanical conditions. Although the global the advanced economies have weathered the worst hardship, such as the fiscal cliff and the debt crisis, but they still lack growth momentum
