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Be it an opportunity for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to strengthen his premiership or a political trap he should guard against, the surprise request of anti-establishment Five-Star Movement (M5S) for talks with ruling center-left Democratic Party (PD) is a question mark which opens new scenarios for the Italian government.
Since they founded the internet-based M5S in 2009, former comedian Beppe Grillo and his right-hand man Gianroberto Casaleggio had always refused any dialogue with the mainstream parties that the movement wanted to overturn after decades of scandals.
In the wake of mounting discontent deepened by Italy's recession, the grassroots movement gained over 25 percent of the national vote last year. But in May's election to the European Parliament (EP), it was beaten by the PD of charismatic Renzi, which took 40.8 percent, nearly double the 21.2 percent of M5S.
On Sunday, in a move that surprised observers, Grillo offered an outstretched hand to Renzi. He said in a statement published on his blog that he was willing to talk about a new voting law that the government is aiming to approve in the next months to replace the current dysfunctional system. Renzi's success in the EP election was a key factor in his change of attitude, Grillo added.
"Grillo's turn is linked to the EP vote and to his decision of an alliance with the far-right UK Independence Party (UKIP) which has aroused strong criticism among the M5S electors," Elisabetta Gualmini, head political scientist for the Istituto Cattaneo research foundation and one of the main experts on the M5S, told Xinhua.
"In order to balance this odd choice and please part of his electors, Grillo has now to commit in another alliance, this time with the center-left PD," she added.
Many have criticized Grillo for failing to use his popular support to work for reforms in Italy over the past months, she noted.
Renzi replied to Grillo that he was ready to talk with the M5S and any other political force to seek common ground on Italy's much-needed change, but provided that there will be "neither secrets nor little games" in the new dialogue.
However, Gualmini stressed, though "it is positive that Grillo finally chooses to enter into the logic of parliament, on the other hand this could be a trap for Renzi." The M5S's proposal for a new voting system based on proportional representation, she elaborated, would "not produce any solid government in the current situation and would be a disaster for the country."
"Renzi must therefore be very cautious, because these participation signals could lead to another stalemate of parliament" in the next elections, after last year's inconclusive vote resulted in two months of political impasse, Gualmini explained to Xinhua.
On Monday, Grillo presented his movement's proposal of a proportional representation law which "allows a party that gets around 40 percent of the votes to have over 50 percent of the seats" for an alternative to Renzi's bill, which sets bars for small parties and provides a 15 percent bonus for a coalition that wins 37 percent in the first ballot or in a run-off vote.
Renzi's bill was the result of his agreement with the leader of the opposition center-right Forza Italia (FI) party and three-time premier Silvio Berlusconi.
They also struck a deal for transforming the Senate into an assembly of local-government representatives with minimal law-making powers to streamline Italy's expensive political system and approving legislation more smoothly.
"The offer of talks on the electoral law was born in my opinion from the fear of being excluded from the double game of the Senate and electoral reforms, two laws intended to profoundly change Italy's political world," a political commentator at la Repubblica newspaper and author, Sebastiano Messina, said.
In his view, Grillo's move however will be beneficial for Renzi. The possibility of no longer having to rely only on FI and the New Center-Right (NCD) of Angelino Alfano (the government's junior partner) to pass the reforms, but also on other allies, will "decrease the blackmailing power" of each party or political group, even within the PD, which has recently faced some dissent, Messina told Xinhua.
A more stable government, he pointed out, would diminish the risk of early elections, allowing Renzi to continue his mandate and his ambition to relaunch Italy until the natural end of current legislation in 2018.
