Egypt election: Sisi and the fight for voters’ turnout

APD NEWS

text

Amidst the turmoil in the Middle East, the collapse of states and raging civil wars, more than 59 million Egyptian voters went to the polls between March 26 and 28 to choose their president for four more years. Their clear choice from the start was the incumbent president Field Marshal Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, not his obscure contestant Moussa Moustafanor, who tried to run but failed to get on to the ballot.

Voters who won’t show up

There are four groups of voters who may not go to the polls for various reasons:

An electoral worker sorts ballots to count votes after polls closed during the presidential election in Cairo, Egypt, March 28, 2018.

The first group sees Sisi as a sure winner, so why bother and waste time.

The second group consists of those who have economically suffered from Sisi’s daring, painful but necessary economic reforms so they won’t vote in order to send him a symbolic message.

The third group consists of the youth who participated in the January 2011 Revolution but were later marginalized and blamed for all the chaos that ensued.

Finally the fourth category are the followers of political Islam who are at war with Sisi’ s regime.

**Who is voting for Sisi? **

March 27, 2018, Cairo: A voter inks her finger after casting a ballot on the second day of voting in Egypt's presidential elections.

Sisi’s main support basically comes from those who fear Islamists and anarchy. These groups of voters consist of the following:

First, women who fear Islamists and their oppression of women. Egyptian women learned from watching the painful experiences of Iranian women under the Ayatollah and Afghani women under Taliban what Islamist polices could mean for them. Egyptian women spearheaded the Revolution of 2013 that ended the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood and saved Egypt from a fate similar to Germany when they chose Hitler in a democratically contested election in 1933 but led to a very undemocratic dictatorship. In the presidential election of 2014 that brought General Sisi to power, women represented almost 53% of voters and 55% of those who approved the new constitution.

The second group is people belonging to religious minorities, most notably Coptic Christians. The majority of Copts who represent almost 10% of the population voted for Sisi to avoid the fate of becoming a persecuted minority ruled by Islamists as has happened in other countries.

The third category is senior citizens who do not want to see chaos and the collapse of civil society.

The fourth group are business leaders who want stability for trade.

Finally the fifth group, the “Deep State”, consisting of the security establishment and government bureaucracy.

Foreign Backing

Sisi also enjoys strong international backing from the US, the EU, Israel, Russia, and many rich Gulf states. This was an important factor that deterred many potential presidential candidates from challenging Sisi. The only two countries in the world that don’t support Sisi are the pro-Muslim Brotherhood countries of Qatar and Turkey. Western governments, after suffering from the results of the Arab Spring through increased refugees, terrorism and illegal immigrants, have no stomach for rushing the Western democracy model in Egypt.

What are special about 2018 presidential elections?

Deputy Chief of the National Elections Commission (NEC) Mahmoud al-Sherif speaks during a press conference in Cairo, March 28, 2018, the third day of the presidential elections.

Sisi wants a high turnout to assert his legitimacy and strength inside and outside Egypt to secure foreign aid and support. In contrast, his opponents – particularly fugitive leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood who have lived in Qatar and Turkey for the last five years – are promoting a low turnout to guarantee and justify the foreign backing they get as a reliable, influential and relevant opposition now and potential leaders in the future, of Egypt if Sisi fails.

Voters’ perceptions

Local and outside opposition are too weak. Almost 107 legitimate political parties have failed to produce a reliable and strong challenger who could run against Sisi. Moreover, there is the general realization that even if Sisi was not running, Egyptians would prefer a military figure to rule them in the face of the current regional turmoil. Moreover, he Western intervention in the Middle East that toppled Saddam Hussein in Iraq left Libya in chaos and devastated the Syrian state has given Western style democracy a bad name.

Counting votes after polls closed during the presidential election in Cairo, March 28, 2018.

The final turnout may not reach the 47% achieved in 2014 when terrorism was covering the country compared to the current situation with terrorism more and more contained in North Sinai desert. It is likely to be below 30%.

Sisi as President for second term

Sisi will continue in his second term to re-build the army and reform the economy. His war against terrorism, that he has failed to win over the last 5 years, will have to reach a crystal-clear victory through his current Sinai 2018 campaign he had launched on February 9 this year. The Egyptian economy is now going through its biggest debt burden in its history standing at over 82 billion US dollars, but on a positive note the reserves jumped to over 42 billion US dollars.

Gulf and foreign investments are coming back to Egypt. The tourism sector has started breathing again. Sisi may still continue putting development and security first while approaching democracy with suspicion. Attempts to extend his second term or amend the constitution for this purpose will require greater improvements in the economy to win popular support.


The author Said Sadek is a professor of political sociology and communication based in Egypt. He is also the representative of the Finnish Institute in the Middle East (FIME).This article is adapted from XXX, and is not what APD stands for.

(CGTN)