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By APD writer Du Baiyu
Translated by Deng Xianlai
As senior officials from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and South Korea once again shook hands Tuesday at the Panmunjom demilitarized zone after a two-year hiatus of talks, questions remain to be answered as to what lies behind the sudden thaw between the bitter rivals – whose relations have been marred by fiery rhetoric - that comes just days into the new year.
From signaling to break the ice to settling the level, agenda as well as name lists of participants, there seems to have been a tacit mutual understanding between the pair, with both sides meeting each other halfway and “thinking in big-picture terms.”
According to media reports, the DPRK side said at Tuesday’s meeting that it will dispatch a delegation comprising high-ranking officials, members of the country’s Olympic Committee, athletes, an art troupe, a cheering squad and a Taekwondo demonstration team to participate in the PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games in South Korea in February.
The South Korean side, for its part, proposed that a reunion of families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War be arranged during Feburary’s Lunar New Year holiday, and that a Red Cross dialogue be held.
As the 30-day countdown of the Winter Olympics approaches, DPRK top leader Kim Jong Un has tightly grasped the opportunity of the Games while South Korean President Moon Jae-in has for the first time got a chance to carry out his plan for dealing with Pyongyang, a processes in which he has maintained that Seoul should have an upper hand.
As a result, a hard-gained prospect of peace is looming on the Korean Peninsula after the two sides have shown willingness to make mutual compromise while each having their own needs.
Last year the administration of President Moon has for several times expressed the hope that the DPRK will participate in the PyeongChang Winter Games but has never received a response from Kim’s regime - until the New Year’s Day.
Top leaders of the DPRK have always used the New Year’s Day speech to set the tone for the country’s internal and foreign affairs policies, making the occasion a rare parameter to assess the direction the country will move toward.
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In a televised address on Jan. 1, Kim offered his clear stance on the United States and South Korea. Regarding Washington, he said:” The entire United States is within range of our nuclear weapons, and a nuclear button is always on my desk,” adding that the United States “can never start a war against me and our country.”
The young leader, however, offered a rare olive branch to his southern neighbor. “When it comes to North-South relations, we should lower the military tensions on the Korean Peninsula to create a peaceful environment,” Kim said, according to an English translation of his speech.
Kim also said at the time that he would consider sending a delegation to the PyeongChang Winter Games. These words are perceived by analysts as signs that Kim seeks to dominate the development of the situation on the peninsula by making a pre-emptive move to sow discord in the U.S.-South Korea alliance.
However, don’t expect that the United States and South Korea will travel down the path under the control of the DPRK’s baton. That President Moon and U.S. President Donald Trump have agreed to suspend the U.S.-South Korea joint military drills during the Olympics is not really a concession made at the DPRK’s request.
A consensus with the United States on making the four-yearly sporting showpiece conflict-free is in line with South Korea’s national interest, as nothing is more important to Moon’s administration than securing a flawless success of the Olympic Games.
From the Trump administration’s viewpoint, the United States won’t be scolded for giving a 100-percent support to Seoul during the Games first and then proposing the resume of the routine military exercises in March.
It is the writer’s view that Moon will face a dilemma after the Olympics. On the one hand, there are warnings from Kim that South Korea should seek inter-Korean unity rather than war games with outside parties if it wants to prevent wars. On the other hand, the pro-American conservatives within South Korea have been pressuring the president to remain firmly committed to the unwavering alliance between Seoul and Washington.
On the U.S. side, the Trump administration’s policy of keeping utmost pressure on the Kim regime remains unchanged. Trump’s logic is that the DPRK’s proposal for talks is a direct consequence of both his administration’s economic sanctions against Pyongyang and its military threats toward the regime.
As Trump continues to deny unconditional negotiations with the DPRK, the possibility of unabated U.S.-South Korea joint military drills remains high, which in turn will lead to a vicious circle whereby the DPRK responds by continuing its nuclear and ballistic missile tests and further escalates the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
If that were the case, the peaceful image the two Koreas want to present to the world during the Olympic Games would prove to be short-lived, and the atmosphere for national reconciliation will soon be blown away as well.
Tuesday’s talks are said to be aimed at setting an overarching framework that will guide future negotiations on inter-Korean relations involving specific departments from the two sides.
South Korea hopes to set up military-to-military dialogues to bring contingent conflicts under control and improve South-North relations. Seoul has said that large-scale economic cooperation cannot be launched without resolving the nuclear issue at first.
The DPRK’s goals, however, range from halting the U.S.-South Korea joint military exercises and U.S. deployment of strategic weapons in the South to re-initiating the Keumgang Mountain tourism project as well as the Kaesong Industrial Complex.
Huge differences between the two Koreas are still expected to make it difficult for the just-concluded dialogue to achieve major breakthroughs, and the topic of the PyeongChang Winter Olympic Games is more of a starting point for the peace process than an end to it.
The DPRK and South Korea are better advisable to keep the channel of communication open and talk to each other cool-mindedly. They should also make further effort to ensure that the suspension of both the DPRK’s weapons program and the U.S.-South Korea joint drills (known as the “double suspension” that China has consistently suggested) as enduring as possible. Enditem
Du Baiyu is an editor at the In-depth reporting center of International Department of Xinhua News Agency and a correspondent in Xinhua's Pyongyang bureau from 2012 to 2014.
(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)
