Voter disillusionment with Abbott impacts Victorian election

APD

text

Prime Minister Tony Abbott's dwindling popularity among Australian voters is being blamed for the electoral disaster of his Coalition colleagues in Victoria at the weekend.

With 60 percent of the votes counted on Monday morning, the Liberal-National party in Victoria looks like being thrown out of office, thereby becoming the state's first one-term government since 1955.

Apart from the myriad local issues, transport, education and the environment, that were considered important to Victorian voters, it was the recent performance of Abbott and his federal government that is held partly responsible for the electoral demise of state Premier Denis Napthine.

The Liberal candidate for Cranbourne, Geoff Ablett, reflected that prevailing view when he said on Saturday: "I know that some changes need to be made federally because you can't keep going further into the debt, but that has had repercussions to people who have said to me 'I'm not voting for you because of federal government cutbacks'."

The fact Napthine kept Abbott at arm's length for the majority of his campaign spoke volumes about the Australian leader's current public standing.

Recent opinion polls have revealed Abbott has fallen to a low of 35 percent in terms of preferred prime minister. That, in itself, might have justified Napthine's decision.

Instead, Foreign Minister Julie Bishop and former Prime Minister John Howard were deployed to Victoria in the final days of Napthine's campaign, hoping to garner late support in the absence of Abbott.

It was in direct contrast to Labor's ploy, in which Opposition leader Bill Shorten was a prominent figure in canvassing support for Premier-elect Daniel Andrews.

On Saturday evening, as the Coalition's demise in Victoria became abundantly clear, Shorten said: "There is no doubt Victorians used this election to send Tony Abbott a clear message. "

The Labor Party spoke of Victoria's "toxic" attitude towards the federal government, citing an increased federal fuel excise, confusion surrounding GP co-payments and anger towards the recent federal budget as reasons behind Victoria voting so adamantly against the Coalition.

It was an argument that the federal government strongly denied. Australia's minister for trade, Andrew Robb, said he "did not accept that we had a big influence," while Australia's Minister for Immigration Scott Morrison accused Shorten of making the Victorian election "about him."

But away from Canberra, those at the booths believed otherwise. As of Monday morning, the Victorian Labor Party was on track to win 47 seats in the lower house, giving them majority in an 88- seat parliament.

While the usual blame games are to be expected in the fallout following elections, numerous examples of voters looking to take a stand against federal decisions were noted.

Even Abbott's threat to withdraw 2.5 billion U.S. dollars worth of federal funding for the controversial Coalition-led plans for the East-West Link didn't sway voters.

In the immediate aftermath of claiming victory, Andrews reiterated he would scrap plans for the toll road and instead use that money to create greater access to public transport throughout the state.

So what now for the federal government? The greatest stress lingering over Abbott and the Coalition is that this tumultuous period might yet get worse.

Arriving into parliament on Monday morning on the back of such a harsh defeat at state level would have been bad enough for the prime minister. But doing so with Deloitte Access Economics releasing a damning mid-year report on the government's federal budget will make Abbott's headaches multiply.

Especially as the report forecasts a budget deficit of 29.4 billion U.S. dollars, 4.1 billion U.S. dollars more than what was anticipated by Treasurer Joe Hockey earlier in the year.

While that budget remains gridlocked in the Senate, Hockey will be forced to revise his second effort.

It seems sure to heighten tensions within Canberra and, indeed, around Australia. It also threatens to stall the Abbott government 's campaigns ahead of the 2016 federal election.