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By APD writer Melo M. Acuña
**MANILA, Dec. 11 (APD) ** – Officials from the Departments of Finance, Budget and Management and the National Economic and Development Authority said they revisited the country’s macroeconomic assumptions and medium-tern fiscal and growth targets because of domestic and external developments. In a briefing, the officials said they also met to prepare for the proposed 2021 National Expenditure Program (NEP).
The average inflation rate for 2019 is expected to settle at 2.4 percent which means relatively stable prices as the assumed inflation rates from 2020 to 2022 will be anywhere between 2.0 to 2.4 percent.
Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III, Budget and Management Secretary Wendel E. Avisado and NEDA Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia gave the briefing at the Department of Finance main office in Manila late this morning.
They adjusted downward the assumption for the Dubai crude in US dollars within the range of US$63.00 to US$64.00 per barrel. However, from 2020 to 2020, they projected the price between US$55.00 to US$70.00 per barrel. The exchange rate has been revised downward to the range of P51.00 to P52.00 against the US dollar this year and from P51.00 to P54.00 against the US dollar from 2020 to 2022.
Meanwhile, the assumptions for the 364-day Treasury bill rate and the 6-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) have ben adjust downward with the average T-bill rate from 5.1 to 5.3 percent in 2019 and 3.5 to 4.5 percent in 2020 to 2022. The six-month LIBOR w9ll range from 2.3 to 2.4 percent in 2019 and from 1.5 to 2.5 percent from 2020 to 2022.
During the same briefing, the economic managers said the assumption for goods export growth has been revised downward in the short term to 1.0 percent for 2019 and 4.0 percent in 2020 due to continuing unresolved tensions. The assumptions for 2021 and 2022 are retained at 6.0 percent as global economic activity is expected to recover in the medium term.
Assumptions in services exports growth were maintained at 9.0 percent from 2019 to 2022. The projection for 2019 was adjusted downward to 2,0 percent in 2019 and fixed at 4.0 percent in 2020 and 5.0 in 2021 and 2022.
The economic managers said they project revenue collections to reach P3.15 trillion in 2019 which is equivalent to 16.8 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The disbursements are targeted to reach P3.76 trillion in 2019 which is equivalent to 20.0 percent of GDP.
Given the revenue and disbursement program adopted by the DBCC, the deficit target will be maintained at 3.2 percent of GDP of GDP from 2019 to 2022 in order to sustain the government’s investments in infrastructure and human capital development.
For 2021, the macroeconomic assumptions and forgoing fiscal targets, the 2021 Fiscal Year budget is pegged at P4.640 trillion which is higher by P540 billion or 13.3 percent than the P4.100 trillion cash for Fiscal Year 2020 and equivalent of 20.2 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The proposed budget will continue to finance anti-poverty and peace-sustaining measures through the recently-approved legislative measures which include six important social protection and economic programs including the Universal Health Care Program among others.
(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)
