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As West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surpassed 100 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Wednesday amid concerns that turmoil in Egypt would disrupt shipments from the Middle East, market observers believe U. S. oil price would keep climbing over uncertainties in oil production countries in the Middle East as well as stronger U.S. economic data.
Tension in middle east
U.S. crude oil prices were rising amid growing concerns of the unstable situation in Egypt, an important transit route for oil due to the presence of the Suez Canal and some pipelines, although the country is not an oil exporter.
Raymond Carbone, a senior oil trader at the New York Mercantile Exchange, told Xinhua that it's a combination that helped the oil price to go up.
In his opinion, the two main reasons for the rally are the tension in Egypt and strong demand. Traders are watching closely at what's happening in Egypt, as there were already a lot of production problems in the Middle East area. Not surprised to see the WTI oil price top 100 dollars, Carbone noted that demand seems to be ticking up in the third quarter.
The WTI oil could probably go even higher to 110 dollars, he said. "Something pushed oil 100 dollars, could easily push it even higher."
Miswin Mahesh, an energy analyst with Barclays, noted in a report the scale of supply shortages in the Middle East, citing falling oil output in Libya due to protests at fields and terminals, decreasing Nigerian output at below 2 million barrels a day pressurized by oil theft-related damage to pipelines, and reduced shipments for Iraqi crude exports, which have continued to disappoint growth expectations.
Mahesh predicted that crude Brent oil prices would return to the 111-dollar level recorded last April, given existing supply shortfalls as well as future unplanned outages caused by ongoing geopolitical undercurrents.
Uplifting U.S. economic data
Oil prices were also boosted by encouraging economic data from the United States, with manufacturing and job market promising a steady growth. The U.S. is the world's biggest oil consuming country, accounted for more than 20 percent of global oil consumption.
U.S. factory orders in May rose 2.1 percent, according to the Commerce Department, slightly higher than analysts' forecast of 2. 0 percent. Factory orders in April rebounded 1 percent following a 4.7 percent decline in March.
In the week ending June 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims was 343,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 348,000, the U.S. Labor Department said Wednesday.
Goldman Sachs predicated that global oil demand will rise in the second half of this year as the economy continues to recover.
"Global demand is picking up," Stefan Wieler, a Goldman Sachs commodity analyst, said in a report. "We expect fundamentals to improve further going into the second half of 2013."
Adam Longson, an analyst of Morgan Stanley, wrote in a recent report, "We continue to see fundamental support for higher prices this summer, including seasonally stronger demand, low distillate stocks, and tighter oil supply."
