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Will the war of words between Washington and Pyongyang lead to another armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula?
As DPRK leader Kim Jong Un delayed a decision on firing missiles towards Guam, the United States continues its diplomatic efforts through both official and back channels. Meanwhile, China and the Republic of Korea (ROK) have urged both sides to exercise restraint. It clearly appears that all sides involved are trying to avoid a military conflict at the moment.
However, the worst scenario of this ongoing nuclear brinkmanship cannot be ruled out. If another Korean War breaks out on its doorstep, what would China do? Would Beijing be neutral or defend Pyongyang as it did in 1950?
DPRK leader Kim Jong Un (L2) visits the Command of the Strategic Force of the Korean People's Army and reviews the plan for landing missiles near the US territory of Guam, August 15, 2017.
War 'becoming more possible'
Confrontation between Washington and Pyongyang has been escalating since Donald Trump entered the White House in January, particularly since the DPRK tested two Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) in July.
Last week, verbal threats between Trump and Kim took the tension to a new height.
The DPRK said its strategic force was examining a plan for "making an enveloping fire at the areas around Guam," an American military stronghold in the Pacific. Trump threatened to attack the DPRK with "fire and fury like the world has never seen," adding that military solutions were "locked and loaded."
The world began to seriously worry that another unilateral move by Pyongyang or Washington might result in dangerous miscalculations and even a military conflict.
The DPRK tests a Hwasong-14 ICBM, July 29, 2017.
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, who is currently the president of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York, said a war was "becoming more possible."
Most analysts were right to regard a conflict over the DPRK nuclear program as "improbable," Rudd wrote in a commentary on Financial Times last week. "But the uncomfortable truth is that it is now becoming more possible."
He warned that "it would be wrong to assume the US has ruled out a unilateral strike."
Tensions ease slightly, but…
The international community can feel slightly relieved as the latest developments this week have shown that nobody wants a war, at least for the time being.
On Tuesday, Kim said he would hold off on a planned missile strike near Guam, but warned that the DPRK would "make an important decision" if the US continues with its "extremely dangerous and reckless actions on the Korean Peninsula and in its vicinity."
Meanwhile, Beijing and Seoul reiterated their strong opposition to military actions, as Joseph Dunford, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, visited East Asia at this volatile time.
It is not clear whether the signs of easing tensions were a result of the intensified diplomatic efforts or the tough sanctions unanimously adopted by the UN Security Council last week.
But it is too early to be optimistic. When the US and the ROK hold their military drills next week, how will the DPRK respond? Tensions are likely to rise again.
China's options in case of war
In an editorial titled " Reckless game over the Korean Peninsula runs risk of real war " last Thursday, China's Global Times said the country should make all sides understand that "when their actions jeopardize China's interests, China will respond with a firm hand."
The editorial suggested that China would "stay neutral" if the DPRK "launches missiles that threaten US soil first and the US retaliates."
On the other hand, if the US and the ROK attack the DPRK to "change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula," the editorial added, "China will prevent them from doing so."
A flag-raising ceremony is held during a military parade celebrating the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) at Zhurihe training base in north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, July 30, 2017.
Though Global Times does not necessarily represent Beijing's official stance, many analysts agree that the peninsula carries great strategic importance for China, but Beijing's support to Pyongyang in another war with Washington is not guaranteed.
Peter Hartcher, an international editor of Sydney Morning Herald, said on Monday that whether China will back Kim in a military fight with the US "probably depends on who starts the fight."
He believes the Global Times editorial "reflects growing Chinese frustration with Pyongyang," adding that the DPRK leader "cannot be sure of Chinese support" in such a war.
"It would also be wrong to assume that China would simply stand idly by if the peninsula degenerated into conflict," Rudd indicated, underscoring China's "deep anxiety about the possibility of a US military presence on its northeastern land border" if a war ends up in an American victory.
He said the US and China should find a "creative diplomatic solution" to the crisis, suggesting that Washington should consider a former peace treaty with Pyongyang and the "possible withdrawal of US forces from South Korea" if China can persuade the DPRK to give up its nuclear program.
A US THAAD interceptor is launched during a successful intercept test.
But it is not easy for the "creative diplomacy" suggested by Rudd to work at this stage. Pyongyang seems to be determined to build up its nuclear arsenal, whereas Beijing, though committed to the denuclearization of the peninsula, has made it clear that China does not hold the key to resolve the crisis because it is not able to address DPRK's security concern.
Beijing reluctant to talk about war
If China neither stands idly, nor gives unconditional support to the DPRK in a war against the US, what would it do? So far, Chinese authorities have refused to make its stance clear.
In response to a question about whether China will remain neutral if the US counter-attacks the DPRK on its ballistic missile strike on Guam, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said on Monday: "It is not appropriate for me to answer such a hypothetical question, neither do I want to do so."
She went on to urge all parties involved to seriously consider China's "suspension for suspension" proposal, which means the DPRK should suspend its nuclear and missile activities in exchange for the suspension of large-scale US-ROK military exercises.
Chinese President Xi Jinping reviews the armed forces as part of the commemorations to mark the 90th founding anniversary of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) at Zhurihe military training base in north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, July 30, 2017.
"We hope under the current circumstances, various parties can mainly focus on easing the tensions and early resumption of talks," she added.
In late July, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian also said he could not answer a "hypothetical" question about what the Chinese military would do if a war broke out on the peninsula.
China working hard to avoid war
Despite the reluctance to talk hypothetically about war, China is making efforts on various fronts to cool the tension.
Following the UN Security Council resolutions, China this week imposed embargoes on the imports of coal, iron ore, gold, rare earths and several other raw minerals from the DPRK and the exports of aviation fuel to the country.
In another development, Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Kong Xuanyou has taken a concurrent post as China's special representative on Korean Peninsula affairs. His top priority is to facilitate a "soft landing" of the current crisis, said Ruan Zongze, executive vice president of China Institute of International Studies.
Meanwhile, China and the US pledged to step up military exchanges during Dunford's two-day visit, as part of their efforts to strengthen cooperation and reduce miscalculations.
US President Donald Trump praises the DPRK leader's "wise" decision to halt plans to fire missiles toward the US Pacific territory of Guam in a tweet, August 16, 2017.
Since neither Pyongyang has announced the suspension of its nuclear program, nor have Washington and Seoul agreed to stop their military drills, the stakes are still very high: Any unilateral action – another ICBM test by the DPRK or another large-scale drill by the US and the ROK – runs the risk of rekindling the war of words, which could take the peninsula to the brink of a real war again.
It is too early to tell what role China would play in another Korean War, but the country is doing everything possible to prevent it.
(CGTN)
