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Chief Economist of Deutsche Bank, Dr Ma Jun, presents his prediction over economic growth in coming year,at the 2nd Annual Oversea Financial Champion Awards held in Hong Kong, Dec. 18, 2013.(Xinhua/ WANG Qianqian)
Both growth of economy and development of capital market of the Chinese mainland in 2014 are likely to grow after the 3rd Plenum of China's Central Committee, said Dr. Ma Jun, Chief Economist of Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong on Wednesday.
Ma predicted the growth of economy in 2014 could reach 8.6 pct, much higher than the predictions from outsiders in general, for several reasons. Overcapacity is on downward trend, which could help stimulate the incentive of investing, he explained. Private-sector participation will play an important role in driving recovery, especially in the undercapacity industries, such as energy, railway, subway, internet, banking and hospitals. On the other hand, Ma estimated the pace of appreciation of the RMB in the coming year will decrease to a half of 2013, which will affect exports positively.
Ma noted thatnine key reforms are foreseeable after the 3rd Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party, the policy tone-setting meeting of the country, which help reinforce the confidence on the capital market in the coming year.
These anticipated reforms include deregulation, continuous opening up of markets, financial liberalization, reduction of industrial lands,SOEReformation, extension of Property tax, enhancing social security, developing a municipal bond market that addressing LGFV risk allows local governments to finance local infrastructure via transparent financing mechanisms such as bond issuance, and the relaxation of the one-child policy, in a bid to ensure adequate labor supply in the future.
On the other hand, Ma said such risks as governments' measures on cooling down real estate market, change of monetary policy operation framework, slight decline of overseas demand and unexpected pressure from geopolitics, must be addressed.
Meanwhile, Tang Zhijiang, the Deputy Director General of Authority of Qianhai Shenzhen-Hong Kong Modern Service Industry Cooperation Zone, briefedthe development ofQianhai, the newly established special economic zone in Shenzhen.
He said for the time being, financial sector is the backbone of the zone, attracting 150 Hong Kong companies therein.In addition, policies, infrastructure and land reclamation projects have almost been in place. Beside offering services of “cheap offshore fund, in the near future Qianhai will make more efforts to develop Internet finance services, encourage setting up private equity funds and promote the liquidity of finance lease assets, etc. Nearly 900 private equity funds have registered in the equity trading center there, said Tang.
