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The US government is set to deliver its "Kremlin Report" to Congress on Monday, profiling Kremlin-connected Russian elites and assessing the impact of potential new sanction.
The report followed the sanction bill: Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), the US President Donald Trump signed into law last year after congress passed. Russian President Vladimir Putin called the sanctions "illegal under international law."
When passing in congress, lawmakers added an additional condition requiring the Treasury Department to deliver a detailed report to Congress no later than 180 days from the date when the bill was passed.
Why turn sanctions into law?
After they become law, it will become much harder for the president to get rid of or reverse the sanctions
Otherwise, the president has the power to remove sanctions instantly, as they were executive orders.
The passing of the sanction bill legislation in Congress is one of the first major bipartisan pieces of Trump's presidency.
Trump blasted the bill as he signed it. He issued a statement saying it was "seriously flawed -- particularly because it encroaches on the executive branch's authority to negotiate."
Except for existing sanctions, the bill also includes new measures and targets key Russian industries like railways, shipping, metals, mining, and oil.
Those sanctions against Russia are believed to be a response to allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 US election and Russia's actions in Ukraine.
The bill also includes sanctions against Iran and the DPRK.
Who will be on the list?
The law authorizes US government officials' ability to punish - for example, using Asset Seizures against individuals and companies that "knowingly engage in a significant transaction" with people or firms on the list.
On Oct. 26, the government gave first indication of names whom the new law would be targeting, almost a month later for the Oct. 1 deadline.
That list put three dozen Russian entities in the military and intelligence sectors in the notice, including some of the best known state-owned companies in Russia's military industrial complex such as Almaz-Antey, a major manufacturer of missiles, and United Shipbuilding Corporation, the country's biggest shipbuilding firm.
According to Section 241 of the CAATSA, the new report should include "identification of the most significant senior foreign political figures and oligarchs in the Russian Federation, as determined by their closeness to the Russian regime and their net worth."
Meanwhile, the law also requires the report to include the sources of wealth of those businessmen and their relatives - parents, spouses, children and siblings.
Global Risk Insights listed some names that are likely to be on the list:
Oleg Deripaska: A Russian aluminum billionaire who was previously employed by Paul Manafort, Trump's former campaign manager.
Mikhail Fridman and Alisher Usmanov: Two of Russia´s richest businessmen. They received 2 billion and 31 billion US dollars' worth of rubles via their companies Alfa Group and Metalloinvest from Vneshkombank, respectively.
Roman Abramovich: A Russian tycoon who earned his assets in oil and gas business, and his company Evraz obtained 1.8 billion US dollars from the Russian state.
A former assistant secretary of State, Daniel Fried, who led the State Department's Russia sanctions office, commented the intention of the report is "name and shame". He said the reports aimed to send a message: "Putin’s aggression in terms of Russian interference in our elections will be very costly to them."
Ariel Cohen, a Russia analyst at the Atlantic Council think tank, believed the new list will add 4 to 400 names to the current 29, as the new report is aimed to outline the likely effects of imposing sanctions on Russian parastatal entities.
Some are still wondering if the report will list as many as hundreds of names, while some analysts assumed Trump's administration may only give a list of names who are already known as Putin's cronies.
Russia's reaction
Moscow appears to be in the teeth of the storm. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said last Wednesday that the list and the potential of new sanctions are "not our choice". "We regard them as counterproductive and senseless.”
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov also accused the US of trying to influence the upcoming presidential election on Jan.13 during an interview with TASS.
When discussing the report's influence to the election, Fried said the report will "hit people because it shows they are not safe; that the US is willing to go after this class of people and Putin cannot protect them".
Although in the short term, it could pose a direct challenge to Putin, Andrei Piontkovsky, a Russian political analyst predicted that in a longer version, the US move to target more individuals could help Putin undermine the broad support for Putin's anti-western rhetoric.
According to DW, Russian elites are currently anxious about the report giving the indicator that there is a booming increase in the number of Russian businessmen applying for residency permits for themselves and their families in Malta, an EU member state.
"The Russian elite reacted with something between anxiety and panic about the prospect of this list,” Fried said. "They focused on this immediately, and they’re very worried about it."
Andrei Piontkovsky, a Russian political analyst also believes it's a gloomy time for Russian elites "because for the first time it will bring personal pain to those closest to Putin."
Cohen said his friends, some Russia’s well-connected billionaires have hired law firms to try to keep them off the list.
Moreover, source said the Russian financial institution has already prepared to minimize the risks.
For instance, Alfa Bank, Russia's largest private commercial lender, said it was cutting back its exposure to the country's formidable defense industry.
Trump's first year with Russia
When running the election campaign, Trump promised, "We're going to have a great relationship with Putin and Russia."
However, since Trump came into power, he has been dogged by the allegation that Russia meddled the election to help him win, which both Trump and Russia denied.
Thus, related investigations are still under way and Trump recently said he would be would be willing to speak to the special counsel office's under oath.
Despite Trump and Putin having a seemingly nice first face-to-face talk, experts said the hostility between two sides only escalated because of the sanctions, National Security Strategy, Syrian issues and Ukraine issues.
Trump's National Defense Strategy labels Russia as a "revisionist power". "Russia aims to weaken US influence in the world and divide us from our allies and partners," the document writes.
The US president has also approved the sale of more lethal arms to Ukraine in last December.
As for Syria issue, Trump was reported would allow Bashar al-Assad to stay on as president until 2021, which reverses US' past repeated statements that Assad must step down as part of peace process. Nevertheless, the US recently declared Russia was to blame for the Syria's use of chemical weapons.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov concluded the nature of the ties between the US and Russia have been one of the major disappointments of the year.
(CGTN)
