Ageing population expected to push down New Zealand jobless rate

New Zealand's unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4 percent by 2021 as the ageing population constrains the supply of labor, the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) forecast Friday.

However, the projection in the MBIE's annual Medium-Long Term Employment Outlook was conditional of average annual GDP growth of 2.7 percent from 2011 to 2016 and 3 percent from 2016 to 2021.

The outlook said the unemployment rate, which stood at 6.2 percent in the September quarter, is expected to trend down to 4.8 percent by 2016.

The outlook said total employment is expected to rise by 180, 300, or 1.6 percent, a year to 2016, and by about 174,500 (1.4 percent) a year over the subsequent five years.

Jobs growth would be driven strongly by the primary sector, primary processing, certain manufacturing industries such as machinery and equipment, metal products and in construction- related activities.

Service industries, including the health, cultural and personal services sectors, would see modest to strong employment growth.

The number of workers retiring is expected to rise from about 50,000 a year to 2016 to about 70,000 a year from 2016 to 2021, as a result of the ageing population.