APD Review | How will the U.S. and its allies strike on Syria?

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By Hu Xiaodao**

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Translated by Ma Qian**

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he ordered missile strikes on Syria, in concert with Britain and France, in response to the alleged chemical weapons attack last week in the war-torn country.

"I ordered the United States armed forces to launch precision strikes on targets associated with the chemical weapon capabilities of Syrian dictator of Bashar al-Assad," Trump said in the White House.

Syrian TV reported that Syrian air defenses have hit back at the U.S.-British-French attack.

U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis stated that U.S. allies hit “Syrian chemical weapons infrastructure” in “harder” strike than 2017’s.

On April 7, 2017, the U.S. launched 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the Mediterranean Sea into the Shayrat Airbase in Homs in western Syria, in response to the Khan Shaykhun chemical attack that occurred on 4 April.

Though Mattis said that the latest military strike was “a one-time shot” right now, the possibility of further attacks is not ruled out.

It could be predicted that, compared with the 2017 missile attack, the U.S. forces this year will escalate its strikes against Syria in terms of operation scale and intensity.

First of all, more countries would participate in the joint military operations led by the U.S. forces. Its allies Britain and France have joined the latest one. Countries including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE will be also likely to provide facilities for such strikes. Besides, the United States and relevant countries could also have coordinated with Turkey, Jordan and Iraq over military attacks on Syria.

Secondly, the operations would last longer. In the 2017 missile strike, the U.S. hit the single target of the Shayrat Airbase with strong firepower and for a short time.

While at present, in the Middle East, the largest bases for potential use in operations against Syria are the U.S. base at al-Udeid in Qatar and British military bases in Cyprus. The two countries would possibly increase their forces in the airbases, which might indicate the intensity of impending attacks against Syria.

Thirdly, the selection of targets to be struck would be more flexible. One year ago, the U.S. only launched punitive strike against one airbase controlled by the Syrian government, in order to impose military deterrence and prevent escalation of tensions.

So far, with the Islamic State suffering a heavy loss, the safety situation has been drastically changed in Syria. The game among major powers in the Middle East has also entered a new stage. To achieve various political and military purposes, the U.S. would flexibly select its striking target and draw up multiple operation solutions.

Firstly, punitive strikes. This type of strike is aimed at conveying clear warnings to the Syrian government, instead of destroying the latter’s capability to use chemical weapons. Key striking targets include important facilities of the Syrian government and its military, as well as other targets of high values.

How long and strong the strikes would be depends on whether the U.S. would achieve its political and military purposes. The U.S. and its allies would not randomly launch “targeted elimination” against the Assad administration, because such strikes would trigger full-fledged conflicts.

Secondly, destructive strikes. This type of strike is aimed at destroying the Syrian government’s capability to deliver chemical weapons. Key striking targets include weapon delivering platforms, such us airports, missile fields and artillery fields.

Take airports as an example. It is believed that there are at least six airports closely connected with chemical weapons arsenal in Syria. The U.S. forces will be likely to launch strikes against airport runways, fuel depots, ammunition depots, ground control facilities, radars and maintenance facilities.

Moreover, retaliatory strikes, which refer to strikes the U.S. and its allies launch against the Russian forces and the Iranian forces stationed in Syria. So far, the Russian forces have been gathered mainly in Tartus, Latakia and Damascus.

Russia's ambassador to Lebanon Alexander Zasypkin has warned that his country would hit back, if the U.S. military operations threaten Russians’ lives, by shooting down any US missiles fired at Syria and “even the sources that launched the missiles.”

In general, the U.S. military will possibly employ the above three striking solutions for their operations in Syria. Against the backdrop of the complicated Syrian situation, the U.S. will be highly likely to get itself burned, if it plays the fire of military strikes at will.

(ASIA PACIFIC DAILY)