简体中文
By the end of next year, the three core Ebola hit countries in West Africa will have lost about 809 million U.S. dollars in their economies, the World Bank predicted.
This projected loss will be the medium-term impact of the outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) on Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea.
A release from the World Bank's Ghana office responsible for both Sierra Leone and Liberia said the bank "finds that if the virus continues to surge in the three worst-affected countries - Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, its economic impact could grow eight-fold, dealing a potentially catastrophic blow to the already fragile states".
For Guinea, it said the short-term impact of the disease would be a loss of 130 million dollars or 2.2 percent of the country's total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2014.
The medium term with low Ebola incidence will result in a loss of 43 million dollars or 1.0 percent of GDP in 2015, while a high Ebola incidence will cost the country 142 million dollars or 2.3 percent of GDP in 2015.
The analysis found out that the disease outbreak would affect economic output variously in the three core countries.
"Inflation and food prices were initially contained but are now rising in response to shortages, panic buying, and speculation," the World Bank said.
It said those families already vulnerable to food price shocks were becoming increasingly exposed, while exchange rate volatility has increased in all three countries, particularly since June, fuelled by uncertainty and some capital flight.
"The analysis finds that the largest economic effects of the crisis are not as a result of the direct costs (mortality, morbidity, care giving, and the associated losses to working days) but rather those resulting from aversion behavior driven by fear of contagion," it added.
This, according to the World Bank, will in turn lead to a fear of association with others and reduce labor force participation, close places of employment, disrupt transportation, and motivate some government and private decision-makers to close sea ports and airports.
The document said in the recent history of infectious disease outbreaks such as the SARS epidemic of 2002-2004 and the H1N1 flu epidemic of 2009, behavioral effects have been responsible for as much as 80- 90 percent of the total economic impact of the epidemics.
"The findings of the analysis underline the need for a concerted international response. External financing is clearly needed in the three core countries, and the impact estimates suggest that containment and mitigation expenditures as high as several billion dollars would be cost-effective if they successfully avert the worse scenario," the Bank urged.
