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All eyes were on Australia Monday after a gunman took hostages at a Sydney cafe, begging the question of whether Islamist radicals, particularly the Islamic State, could strike the United States. But while the majority of Americans believe an Islamic State attack on the U.S. is possible, some experts said it's unlikely.
The militant group has in recent months been on the rampage in the Middle East. Its fighters have overrun vast swaths of Syria and Iraq in a bid to establish a caliphate based on the group's twisted version of Islam, while threatening to "fly the flag of Allah in the White House." Another attack similar to the Sept. 11, 2001 strikes on New York and the Pentagon is Washington's worst nightmare, and that has led to a U.S. bombing campaign against the Islamic State positions.
On Monday, what seemed to be a radical Islamist gunman took hostages at a cafe in Sydney, forcing individuals to display the flag of a radical Islamist group, although it remains unknown whether the gunman is connected to any group or acted alone. Australia has been on high alert against radicalized Australians returning from fighting in the Middle East with groups such as the Islamic State, and Australia has been a close ally of the U.S. in the fight against terrorism.
More than 80 percent of Americans expect the Islamic State to strike the U.S. in the near future, and 48 percent think it is " very" likely, according to a Fox News poll released last week, but some experts believe such fears may be exaggerated.
"There is a difference between 'possible' and 'likely.' I think it's certainly possible that ISIS could attack the United States...but to say it is 'likely' might be a stretch," RAND Corporation associate political scientist Colin P. Clarke told Xinhua, using an acronym of the Islamic State.
Clarke said it is more likely that either al-Qaida splinter groups Jabhat al-Nusra or the Khorasan group would attempt to strike the U.S., since both of those organizations have made attacking the U.S. an explicit objective. However, the Islamic State's calculus could change if the U.S.-led campaign against it, which includes airstrikes and training the Iraqi military, continues well into the future, which is likely, he said.
At the moment the Islamic State is so focused on attempting to build it's own Islamist state, in addition to fighting on multiple fronts against Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad's forces, rebel group the Free Syrian Army, the Kurds, the Iraqi security forces and others. But the real danger comes from the group's sanctuary and ability to hold territory. When a terrorist or insurgent group is able to effectively control territory, this makes it easier for the group to train, plot, plan and organize attacks, Clarke said.
Indeed, the 9/11 attacks on the U.S. were planned in Afghanistan at a time when the Taliban hosted al-Qaida and allowed the radicals to build terrorist training camps there.
Still, an Islamic State strike might not be on the same scale as the 9/11 attacks, as U.S. intel forces have been on high alert for more than a decade since those attacks, which killed nearly 3, 000 people. Moreover, there is anecdotal evidence that inter- governmental cooperation has increased and the U.S. has a better ability to gather and analyze pertinent information.
That said, the 2013 Boston marathon bombings demonstrated just how easy it was for lone wolves or radicalized individuals to take action, whether in the form of a small arms attack or the deployment of some kind of crude improvised explosive devices like that built by terrorists Dzhokhar and Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the two accused of being behind the Boston marathon bombings, Clarke said.
Despite the Islamic State's possible limitations and focus on building a caliphate, U.S. forces worldwide went on high alert earlier last week in a bid to protect Americans and U.S. assets overseas for possible violent repercussions over a report on alleged torture used by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) against terror suspects. The report, which alleged the CIA used torture on suspects and provided a number of gruesome, grabbed headlines worldwide.
"It is likely the report will further heighten the danger to Americans abroad from extremists as well as other elements angry about such mistreatment, said Wayne White, former deputy director of the U.S. State Department's Middle East Intelligence Office.
"This report will revive memories of not only this activity, but other abuses such as those at Abu Ghraib during the early period of the Iraq War," he told Xinhua. "The only question is how much."
He added that he was "appalled" to find out about the CIA's controversial interrogation program when he was with the State Department.
Clarke said the groups that want to attack the U.S. want to do so irrespective of the report, and will attempt to use the report in their propaganda and social media, including as a potential recruiting tool. But any retaliation by the Islamic State would be more a result of current U.S. airstrikes instead of any Congressional report, he added. Enditem
