Amnesty bill could make or break Yingluck's government

The contentious amnesty bill has proven to be the worst move made by Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's government in its two-year tenure, further dimming her brother Thaksin's chance of returning home.

The absolute majority enjoyed by the ruling Pheu Thai Party in the Lower House secured a quick and easy passage of the amnesty bill last Friday. Initially, a similar debate result was expected from the Senate, which is also controlled by the ruling party.

The draft law, which many critics say is a thinly veiled attempt to whitewash the alleged crimes of former Premier Thaksin, sparked widespread public outrage across the social spectrum, with college professors, students, businessmen and white-collar workers taking to the city's major streets for over a week now.

While the bill's aim is to help achieve national reconciliation, it had instead pushed the fledgling Yingluck regime into a deeper crisis. This has obviously forced the first female prime minister of the kingdom to reverse gear.

To prevent a political backlash, the soft-spoken lady premier has repeatedly said that she will respect the decision of the Senate on the measure and that she will not revive it if it will be rejected by the upper chamber.

On Saturday, four coalition partners of the government signed a joint declaration to publicly assure that they would strongly oppose the refilling of the controversial measure in the parliament.

The once pro-amnesty Senate speaker Nikom Wairatpanich also made an about face, vowing, along with a group of fellow lawmakers, to abort the bill in the first reading.

The rejection by the Senate of the draft law is what the Yingluck government is expecting as a way-out from the current political mess. But according to some analysts her political opponents are using the issue as their chance to overthrow the government.

In an ultimatum it issued on Thursday, the opposition Democrats threatened to let a "people's court" judge the fate of the Yingluck government if it fails to withdraw the amnesty bill from parliament by 6 p.m. on Monday. The emotion-filled call has further fanned the political flame that has now engulfed other parts of the country, including the far south.

Meanwhile, some anti-government senators, who called themselves the "Group of 40", have demanded an immediate dissolution of the Lower House and an early general election, saying that the government has lost the people's trust because of its relentless push for the amnesty bill. By refusing to show up, the group foiled the Senate's effort to call an early debate on the draft law on Friday.

Some academics have described the amnesty bill as the "worst legislation" in Thai history, saying that this is an affront to the rule of law.

The expanded version of the bill is designed to grant blanket pardon to those involved in political unrest and bloodsheds since the 2006 military coup that toppled the Thaksin regime and forced him into exile.

However, if the legislation comes into effect, only a handful of people would benefit from it since most of those who would qualify to receive pardon were already convicted between 2006 and 2008 with relatively light sentences of one to six years in jail.

Thaksin, on the other hand, has been on the run from a 2008 corruption conviction handed down by the Supreme Court which sentenced him to a two-year jail term.

Political commentator Voranai Vanijaka urged the former premier, who has set off a long-standing political tug-of-war in Thailand, to make a "sacrifice" for the benefit of the country and its people.

"He is apparently turning the perceptions of many of his own supporters against him, as many see a blanket amnesty as a betrayal by him," said Voranai.

Earlier this week, in a message posted on the Facebook page of his legal adviser, Thaksin said he would respect the people's opinion on the amnesty bill, but did not give a hint that he wanted his name out of the list that would be given pardon.

Surichai Wun Gaeo, professor with Faculty of Political Science at Chulalongkorn University, said the amnesty bill should not be pushed too hard in a short time."This demands serious thinking from all sides. We need to look at the real issues of conflict but beyond that we need to talk about the future that we can share together. If one bill is proposed too hard by the majority, it will result in further conflict," Surichai said.