First-round defeat raises more questions for Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal during his loss to Fernando Verdasco on Tuesday. In 2015 he struggled with his confidence and punching power but found his form in the season’s closing months.CreditAaron Favila/Associated Press

(THE NEW YORK TIMES) Rafael Nadaldid not see this very early defeat coming.

In 2015 he struggled with his confidence and punching power under pressure and talked openly about his internal struggles. But after quick exits at Wimbledon and theUnited States Open, he returned home to the Spanish island of Majorca in September, reflected, recommitted himself, and found his form in the season’s closing months.

Now, after his latest Grand Slam downer — a first-round loss to Fernando Verdasco at the Australian Open — the questions about everything from Nadal’s coaching structure to his confidence to his foot speed at age 29 will swirl again.

“If I were his coach, the first thing I would do is remind him of his greatness, which it appears he doubts sometimes,” said Jim Courier, the United States Davis Cup captain and former world No. 1 player.

It is hard to see Nadal winning a 15th Grand Slam singles title at this stage. For the moment, it is Novak Djokovic’s world and everyone else is just renting.

Nadal on Tuesday. He led by two sets to one and in the fifth set led by 2-0 with a break point.CreditLukas Coch/European Pressphoto Agency

Although Nadal nostalgia is certainly in order, the panic button is not worth punching just yet. Men’s players are thriving like never before past the age of 30. And Nadal did play convincing, aggressive tennis down the stretch in 2015 in a phase of the season during which he has often slumped, recovering the sting and depth in his forehand, the whipping stroke that has been his signature shot.

Back in Melbourne, where he beat Verdasco in a classic semifinal on his way to the title in 2009, Nadal trained long and with conviction last week, beating Andy Murray and others in practice while sticking true to his new principles by staying tight to the baseline.

Yet it all led to nothing but more frustration on Tuesday, when Nadal once again failed to close the deal against a much-lower-ranked opponent in one of the tournaments that matter most.

Despite leading by two sets to one against Verdasco and despite leading by 2-0 with a break point on Verdasco’s serve in the fifth set, Nadal ended up losing the last six games of the match.

It was the second first-round defeat of his career in a Grand Slam, coming after his shocking loss at Wimbledon in 2013 to Steve Darcis. But the Darcis upset came when Nadal’s knees were giving him great trouble. He and his camp insist that he is no such pain at the moment, although there was plenty of emotional pain on Wednesday.

“It’s one of the biggest disappointments we’ve had,” Toni Nadal, his coach and uncle, said in an interview with Spanish radio. “All losses hurt, or nearly all, but to go out in the first round of a tournament that is so important like the Australian Open and to have come in here playing well for three or four months, that is what is very disappointing.”

Rafael Nadal, who has rejected calls for a coaching change and declined to answer approaches from outside experts wishing to give him advice, has clawed his way back to No. 5 in the rankings, but he should drop again.

Since winning his ninthFrench Opentitle in 2014, he has not been past the quarterfinals in any Grand Slam event and has been beaten by four players on tour who were ranked outside the top 100 and three more outside the top 50.

His last three Grand Slam singles results are the worst three consecutive results in majors in his career: a second-round loss at Wimbledon to Dustin Brown, a third-round loss at the United States Open to Fabio Fognini and Tuesday’s first-round loss to Verdasco, who has beaten him in three of their last four matches but had never beaten him in a Grand Slam tournament.

Courier sees a common thread. “These guys realized they had to try to take the racket out of Rafa’s hand by overpowering him,” Courier said Wednesday in Melbourne. “It’s a strategy that frankly has been employed too infrequently against the big four. Those guys have been too good for the field if you allow them to play their way. Disruption is the only option to cause an upset, since they so rarely beat themselves with unforced errors.”

Nadal also believes that part of the problem is of his own making. “In terms of being competitive, I was competitive,” he said after losing to Verdasco. “In terms of creating damage to the opponent with my forehand, I didn’t. So I was hitting forehands, and he was able to keep hitting winners. Cannot happen when I am hitting my forehand. The opponent, if he wants to hit a winner, it’s because he takes too much risk. In my opinion, was not the case today.”

In Nadal’s mind, the biggest issue was that he kept allowing Verdasco to go for huge shots from reasonable positions. “I don’t know a hundred percent the reason, to be honest,” Nadal said. “I was doing that good on the practices and the previous tournaments.”

Verdasco finished with 90 winners and 91 unforced errors, huge numbers. He also won an astounding 25 of 27 points at net against a man who was once the king of the passing shot.

Compared with his great seasons, Nadal is in decline. The question is to what degree he can reverse it, as Roger Federer, 34, managed at a more advanced age after his slump in 2013. Federer roared back in 2014 and 2015 to reach No. 2 in the rankings and the singles finals in three major tournaments.

“I believe Rafa can put himself in a winning position again,” Darren Cahill, a leading coach and analyst, said before the tournament. “A lot of people are talking about the fact he had a pretty average year last year, but he finished up the year No. 5 in the world. He’s healthy and finished the year playing some good tennis, so I think those are some good signs from him.”

The best sign for now is the one that points in the direction of clay, Nadal’s traditional haven. He is the greatest men’s clay-courter in history, and he will play a majority of the next four months on the surface, beginning — if he sticks to his schedule — with Rio de Janeiro next month.

But getting past Djokovic to win a 10th French Open title may be too much to ask. Djokovic, the No. 1 men’s player in the world, has beaten Nadal soundly in their recent matches, including a meeting in the French Open quarterfinals last year.

“Nadal’s chances at Roland Garros are still good, but he needs a consistent period of excellence to regain his aura in the locker room,” Courier said. “He is more vulnerable now than he has been since he was a teenager, and the effective game plan has been exposed for others to see.”

The margins are small at this level, and the sort of confidence and taste for risk that Fognini and Verdasco have displayed down the stretch against Nadal could well prove contagious.

Nadal has also shown a new tendency to blow leads. His loss to Fognini at the United States Open was the first time Nadal had lost in a major after leading by two sets to love, and in recent months he has been reeled in by Feliciano López, Milos Raonic and now Verdasco. Nadal’s record in his last six five-set matches is 2-4, telling from a man whose career five-set record is 17-7.

“Lack of confidence shows up in Nadal’s depth of shot or lack thereof,” Courier said. “And that has allowed guys with shotmaking ability, like Fognini and Verdasco, to be able to overpower him. When Rafa was confident, he was seemingly always in charge against all but the best players. But yesterday Fernando was the one giving constant dictation.”

Regaining control of the conversation will be quite a challenge for Nadal.