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Chinese recovery is going to look "very impressive" with a growth of 5-6 percent quarter on quarter in April-June, said Michael Spencer, Deutsche Bank's chief economist and head of research for Asia-Pacific, on CNBC on Monday.
"The domestic demand part of the Chinese economy has recovered well... and a broad range of indicators such as auto and property sales are returning to normal in the country," Spencer told CNBC.
In the next few months, however, China's exports could slow given the economic weakness in China's major export destinations, said Spencer.
Spencer also said that the U.S. economywould struggle and post the biggest risk to the global economy as the country is reopening "too soon."
He believed that a rush in resumption could trigger another wave of infections and further rounds of restrictions.
Meanwhile, Steve Hanke, a senior fellow at the American libertarian think tank Cato Institute, said the U.S. economy could take many years to recover from the enormous damage of the pandemic, CNBC reported.
"And to repair it, it's just not going to happen immediately. I don't think we will reach the level of pre-crisis GDP until ... 2022 and probably way beyond that," he told CNBC.
As for the phase one trade deal between the world's two largest economies, Spencer said tensionsare expected to be exceptionally sensitive this year.
"So the rhetoric between China and the U.S. has already gotten very worrying, and I think can only get worse through this summer," he said.
The two countries
signed the trade deal
in January this year, detailing items on several subjects, including intellectual property, technology transfer, food and agricultural products, and financial services.
(Cover image via VCG)
